[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gaston is moving across the north central Atlantic with
center near 36.8N 43.3W at 01/0900 UTC or about 700 nm west of
Faial Island in the central Azores and about 778 nm west of Lajes
Air Base in the Azores moving northeast at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. A cluster of moderate convection
prevails from 34N-41N between 37W-46W. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Hermine is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
centered near 26.4N 86.6W at 01/0900 UTC or about 217 nm south-
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida; and about 240 nm west-
southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving north-northeast at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is from 22N-30N between 83W-89W. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic extends its axis from 21N34W
to 09N36W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The
wave coincides with a well defined trough in global models at 700
mb. Isolated convection prevails from 12N-17N between 30W-36W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W to 07N40W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 08N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm south of the
Monsoon Trough between 16W-30W and from 07N-14N between 46W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern across the basin is Tropical Storm Hermine
currently centered over the eastern Gulf waters. Please refer to
the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered moderate convection along 24N and west of
92W. The current forecast track takes Tropical Storm Hermine across
the Florida Panhandle near the Big Bend Region by early Friday as
a Hurricane, then continues moving northeast inland as a T.S. along
the coastal plains of Georgia and the Carolinas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cloudiness and isolated convection is observed over portions of
the west Caribbean west of 80W affecting western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands enhanced by T.S. Hermine, which is moving northeast
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To the east; an upper-level low
centered south of Haiti near 18N72W, supports cloudiness and
isolated convection across the western portion of the island. A
surface trough extends north of Panama and Costa Rica from 11N84W
to 11N74W with scattered moderate convection south of 12N between
74W-78W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail
through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low is centered south of Haiti near 18N72W is supporting
cloudiness and isolated convection. This low will move westward becoming
an open trough through the next 24 hours. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms could develop across the island through that
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Gaston moving through the north-central Atlantic. Please
see the Special Features section above for details. There is also
a tropical wave moving across the east tropical Atlantic. Please
see the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection
prevails across the western portion of the basin mainly west of
72W affecting the northern Bahamas. To the east; a 1020 mb
surface high is centered near 30N59W. A surface trough extends
east of the high from 23N54W to 16N56W. No significant convection
is related to this feature. A surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near
36N27W. Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to track inland along
the southeast CONUS by late Friday and Saturday. This will
generate strong southerly winds off the northeast Florida coast
with seas building to 10 ft by late Thursday and Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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