[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gaston is moving across the central Atlantic with center
near 36.0N 45.4W at 01/0300 UTC or about 810 nm west of Faial
Island in the central Azores and about 885 nm west of Lajes Air
Base in the Azores moving northeast at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. A cluster of moderate convection prevails
from 34N-40N between 41W-47W. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Hermine is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
centered near 25.8N 87.0W at 01/0300 UTC or about 260 nm south-
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida; and about 275 nm west-
southwest of Tampa, Florida, moving north-northeast at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is from 22N-27N between 85W-89W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection covers the Florida Peninsula south of
30N including the Florida Straits. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered over the west Atlantic near
36.7N 70.1W at 01/0300 UTC or about 280 nm east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras North Carolina and 965 nm west-southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland moving east-northeast at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt
with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is sheared to
the east of the center from 35N-39N between 66W-69W. Please see latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic extends its axis from 20N30W
to 10N30W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a well defined trough in global models at 700 mb.
Isolated convection prevails from 14N-17N between 29W-32W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis extending from
19N45W to 09N44W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. This wave is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as
seen on the Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
convection is observed at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W to 07N40W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 10N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 50W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern across the basin is Tropical Storm Hermine
currently centered over the eastern Gulf waters. Please refer to
the section above for details. Fair weather prevails across the
western half of the basin, mainly west of 90W. The current
forecast track takes Tropical Storm Hermina across the Florida
Panhandle near the Big Bend Region by late Thursday as a
weak Hurricane, then continues moving northeast inland as a storm
along the coastal plains of Georgia and the Carolinas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection is observed over
portions of the west Caribbean west of 80W affecting western Cuba
and the Cayman Islands. To the east; an upper level low is
centered over Hispaniola near 18N71W supporting cloudiness and
isolated convection across the island. An area of isolated
moderate convection is also depicted south of 15N between 77W-82W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail through the
next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low remains centered over the island supporting
cloudiness and isolated convection. This low will move westward
becoming an open trough through Friday. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms could develop across the island through that
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Gaston moving through the north-central Atlantic while
Tropical Depression Eight is moving off the coast of North
Carolina. See the Special Features section above for details.
There are also two tropical waves moving across the central and
east tropical Atlantic. Please see the section above for details.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails across the
western portion of the basin mainly west of 74W affecting the
northern Bahamas. To the east; a 1019 mb surface high is centered
near 27N62W. A surface trough extends east of the high from 23N53W
to 16N55W. No significant convection is related to this feature. A
surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered near 36N27W. Tropical Storm Hermine is
expected to track inland along the southeast CONUS by late Friday
and Saturday. This will generate strong southerly winds off the
northeast Florida coast with seas building to 10 ft by late Thursday
and Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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