[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 010856
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016

Gaston has weakened a little overnight.  The cloud pattern has lost
some organization with the convection more asymmetric and not quite
as deep as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak CI-numbers have
decreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial wind
speed is lowered to 80 kt based on that data. Gaston is expected to
cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today while it remains in an
environment of moderate southwesterly shear.  These conditions
should cause steady weakening, and Gaston will likely fall below
hurricane strength by tonight. Continued weakening is forecast
when the cyclone moves near the Azores on Friday.  The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward about 17 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day while
Gaston remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  A decrease
in forward speed is predicted after that time due to the approach of
a large extratropical low.  Gaston will likely be absorbed by the
extratropical low in about 3 days. The NHC track forecast lies near
the middle of the tightly-packed models.

Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the western-most islands of
Flores and Corvo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 36.8N  43.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 37.9N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 38.7N  35.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 39.2N  31.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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