[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 010855
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine
and measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds
are a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane
hunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On
this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest
pressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and
brings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast
continues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model
IVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the
global models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the
eastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of
the forecast period, most of the global models suggest
strengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast.

Hermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a
recent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that
the cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020
degrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a
mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the
cyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3
days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little
while it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the
GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 26.4N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 27.8N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 30.0N  84.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0600Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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