[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands extends from 15N56W
to 9N59W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
deep moisture. No associated deep convection. Isolated showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side
of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W along 8N22W to 6N33W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N43W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-
7N between 8W-16W, from 2N-10N between 16W-23W, and from the
equator to 12N between 23W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is
within a 60/75 nm radius of 17N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A small upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
27N96W with a narrow upper trough axis extending south across
Mexico near 24N98W to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N101W
then continues into the east Pacific region. A weak surface
trough remains across the southwest Gulf from 23N97W to 19N94W
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120
nm of a line from the surface trough near 21N96W to 26N90W. A
large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder
of the Gulf with southwest to west flow aloft. A surface ridge
extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by
a 1022 mb high along the South Carolina/Georgia border, a second
1022 mb high in the west Atlantic, and a weaker 1021 mb high
over northeast Mexico. Strong easterly surface flow is over the
southeast and south/central Gulf. This easterly surface low is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N-
26N east of 85W to over south Florida and including the Florida
Keys and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will
diminish by this afternoon. Strong northwest winds near the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish this evening. Winds and
seas will increase again Monday over the southeast Gulf and the
Straits of Florida in response to the building high over the
Carolinas. The surface trough will persist through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean south of
Jamaica near 16N77W and dominates the entire Caribbean,
extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the
surface is a weakening 1011 mb low centered in the northwest
Caribbean near 18N83W with a surface trough extending from
20N87W through the low to 16N81W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 17N-22N between 85W-87W and from 18N-21N
between 75W-79W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are off the coast of Colombia from 10N-13N between
74W-78W. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing fair
weather this morning. The low will dissipate this morning as the
surface trough drifts southwest and dissipates on Monday.
Strong northeast winds will develop Tuesday evening in the lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage as the high over the west
Atlantic strengthens. The tropical wave will enter the southeast
Caribbean later today and weaken south of Puerto Rico on Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north
coast with lingering isolated showers across the island. The
upper ridge is expected to persist through Monday. The west
Atlantic surface trough is expected to move west just north of
the island tonight, increasing the chances of continuing showers
and thunderstorms through Monday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from the Bahamas Islands to over
Hispaniola and Cuba west of 70W. Scattered showers are possible
across the remainder of the west Atlantic south of 27N west of
65W. An upper trough is over the northwest Atlantic north of 29N
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N62W to 30N67W. A
surface ridge is over the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1022
mb high off the South Carolina coast and covering the area west
of the above cold front. A remnant surface trough extends from
26N62W through a 1012 mb low near 23N64W continuing south to
19N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
90 nm of a line from the surface low to 19N59W. A surface ridge
is building south over the central into the east Atlantic
anchored by a 1035 mb high about 700 nm northwest of the Azores.
An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic supporting a surface
trough entering the region near 32N21W and extending to 27N25W.
A second remnant surface trough extends from 23N26W to 18N31w
with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough
axis. The west Atlantic surface trough will drift southwest
through tonight passing north of Hispaniola and east of the
southeast Bahamas by early Monday. The west Atlantic cold front
will stall along 26N through early Tuesday. Strong winds and
building seas will follow the front late Monday through mid week
as the high pressure builds north of the area.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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