[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N55W to
8N58W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
moderate moisture. No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 8N21W to a weak 1014 mb low near
6N29W to 6N34W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N42W
to 9N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 6N-10N
between 14W-18W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 4N-10N between 23W-30W and from 6N-
10N between 30W-33W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are within 60 nm of a line from 4N14W to 3N25W. A surface trough
extends from 23N37W to 16N30W with scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 13N-16N between 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A small upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
27N96W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near
Tampico to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N101W then
continues into the east Pacific region. A weak surface trough
remains across the southwest Gulf from 23N97W to 20N92W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm either
side of the surface trough west of 94W. A large upper ridge
anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder of the Gulf with
southwest to west flow aloft. A surface ridge extends from over
the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high
along the North Carolina/South Carolina border, and 1022 mb high
in the west Atlantic, a second 1022 mb high over Alabama, and a
weaker 1019 mb high over east Mexico. Strong easterly surface
flow is over the southeast and south/central Gulf. This easterly
surface low is generating scattered showers and widely isolated
thunderstorms from 23N-29N  east of 95W to the Florida
peninsula, including south Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Straits of Florida. These strong winds will diminish through
late Sunday. Strong northwest winds near the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico will diminish late Sunday as well. Winds and seas will
increase again Monday over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of
Florida in response to the building high over the Carolinas. The
surface trough will persist through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean south of
Jamaica near 17N77W and dominates the entire Caribbean,
extending over the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the
surface is a 1008 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean
near 18N84W with a surface trough extending from 20N87W through
the low to 15N80W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 16N-21N west of 84W to the Yucatan
peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
inland and within 75 nm along the coast of Colombia north of 10N
west of 73W. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing fair
weather tonight. The low will drift south and weaken to just a
surface trough on Sunday and then dissipate Monday. As the high
over the west Atlantic builds, northeast winds will develop in
the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage by Late Tuesday. The
tropical wave will enter the Caribbean on Sunday and weaken
south of Puerto Rico Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the north
coast of the island with lingering showers across the island.
The upper ridge is expected to persist through Monday. The west
Atlantic surface trough is expected to move west just north of
the island, increasing the chances of continuing showers and
thunderstorms through Monday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm along the north coast
of Cuba and Hispaniola west of 70W. Scattered showers are
possible across the remainder of the west Atlantic south of 28N
west of 67W. An upper trough is over the northwest Atlantic
north of 30N supporting a cold front that remains north of the
discussion area. A surface ridge is building over the far west
Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high off the North Carolina coast
and covering the area west of the above cold front. A remnant
surface trough extends from 29N60W along 25N62W through a 1012
mb low near 23N65W continuing south to 19N66W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms within 300 nm east of the surface
trough between 22N-25N. A surface ridge is building south over
the central Atlantic anchored by a 1036 mb high about 800 nm
northwest of the Azores. An upper trough over the northeast
Atlantic supporting a 1015 mb low just south of the Azores and a
surface trough entering the region near 32N21W and extending to
27N26W. The west Atlantic surface trough will move west passing
north of Hispaniola and east of the southeast Bahamas by early
Monday. The cold front will move south of 31N overnight and
stall along 26N through early Tuesday. Strong winds and building
seas will follow the front late Monday through mid week as the
high pressure builds north of the area.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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