[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 20N between
40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts
of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W, moving westward 10 to 15
knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between
66W and 70W. Rainshowers also have been forming, dissipating, and
re-forming between 68W and 74W during the last six hours or more.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center
that is near 16N26W to 13N30W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center
that is near 13N35W, to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W
to 08N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 10N to 17N between 19W and 35W, from 02N to
10N between 10W and 30W, and from 07N to 11N between 35W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 92W/93W, from the NW Gulf of
Mexico into the SW corner of the area. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N southward
from 90W westward, and from 24N to 30N between 88W and 92W.

The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing upper level S and
SW wind flow. The large-scale southerly wind flow is part of a
larger-scale area of anticyclonic wind flow, that is associated
with a Venezuela-to-Hispaniola-to-Florida ridge. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
90W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to
coastal Mexico near 21N98W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KVQT, KATP, KGRY, KEIR, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg. LIFR in Hebbronville. IFR in Bay City and
in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Pearland. MVFR in Tomball and
in Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles
metropolitan area. MVFR in Lafayette, in New Iberia, and in
Patterson. LIFR in Baton Rouge and Hammond and Slidell. MISSISSIPPI:
IFR in Gulfport. LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings.
FLORIDA: light rain in Milton.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N55W to 28N56W. A
stationary front passes through 32N48W to 27N60W 25N66W and
22N70W. A shear line continues from 22N70W, across N sections of
Haiti, across central sections of Jamaica, to the 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 18N84W. A Caribbean Sea surface
trough extends from 19N88W at the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 18N84W, to 15N83W
and 12N83W. An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 29N49W
24N51W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15N to 21N
at the coast of Cuba between 77W and 82W. This precipitation is
occurring in an area of upper level wind speed shear. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 70W westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from 11N70W at the coast of
Venezuela, toward Hispaniola, toward Florida.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
80W eastward.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts of the
Dominican Republic along 70W/71W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between
66W and 70W. Rainshowers also have been forming, dissipating, and
re-forming between 68W and 74W during the last six hours or more.

The Monsoon Trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, through southern
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N
southward between Colombia and Costa Rica.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.41 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.27 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment, with wind directions from the SW, the west, and
the northwest. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area and surrounding coastal waters, approaching from
the southwest and west.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist
of SW and W wind flow moving across the area, with a ridge to the
south of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of NW wind flow, as the
anticyclonic circulation center, that is associated with the
ridge, moves westward. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast will consist
of S and SW wind flow. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the rest of the time of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one
will consist of SE wind flow and an inverted trough, followed by
anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time. Day two will
start with more anticyclonic wind flow for the first half of the
day. Expect N and NE wind flow for the second half of day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N47W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N to
22N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 58W from 17N
to 22N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 56W and 60W, and from 08N
to 12N between 58W and 61W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 40W eastward. Multiple upper level cyclonic
circulation centers are to the north of 30N. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 24N northward from 33W
eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1004 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N24W, to 32N23W 27N24W 25N30W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
30N northward between 18W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible also
from 24N between 20W and 30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 27N
northward between 35W and the Atlantic Ocean stationary front and
the 29N49W 24N51W surface trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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