[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 20N between
40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across the
eastern parts of the Dominican Republic along 69W/70W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 17N northward between 68W and 70W. Rainshowers
also have been forming, dissipating, and re-forming between 68W
and 74W during the last six hours or more.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that
is near 15N26W to 13N30W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is
near 13N35W, to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W 09N45W and
08N52W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 11N to 15N
between 24W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 02N to 07N between 09W and 30W, and from 07N to 11N between
33W and 47W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 17N southward from
50W eastward, and from 10N southward between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 92W/93W, from the NW Gulf of
Mexico into the SW corner of the area. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N southward
from 90W westward.

The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing upper level S and
SW wind flow. The large-scale southerly wind flow is part of a
larger-scale area of anticyclonic wind flow, that is associated
with a Venezuela-to-Hispaniola-to-Florida ridge. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from east Texas, to the deep south of
Texas, to coastal Mexico near 19N97W, toward the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS and LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Naval
Air Station in Pensacola.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N55W to 28N56W. A
stationary front passes through 32N48W to 27N60W 25N66W and
22N70W. A shear line continues from 22N70W, across N sections of
Haiti, across northern coastal sections of Jamaica, to the 1008 mb
low pressure center that is near 18N84W. A surface trough extends
from a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 18N84W, to 16N82W
and 12N82W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15N to
21N between 79W and 81W. This precipitation is occurring in an
area of upper level wind speed shear. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 70W westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from 11N70W at the coast of
Venezuela, toward Hispaniola, toward Florida.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
80W eastward.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern parts of the
Dominican Republic along 69W/70W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N
northward between 68W and 70W. Rainshowers also have been forming,
dissipating, and re-forming between 68W and 74W during the last
six hours or more.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.41 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.27 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment, with wind directions from the SW, the west, and
the northwest. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area and surrounding coastal waters, approaching from
the southwest and west. Rainshowers have been

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR Port-au-Prince in HAITI: VFR/no
ceiling, as of 28/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Barahona: VFR/few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La
Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling; few cumulonimbus clouds in
Santo Domingo. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling/few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist
of SW and W wind flow moving across the area, with a ridge to the
south of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of NW wind flow, as the
anticyclonic circulation center, that is associated with the
ridge, moves westward. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast will consist
of S and SW wind flow. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the rest of the time of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one
will consist of SE wind flow and an inverted trough, followed by
anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time. Day two will
start with more anticyclonic wind flow for the first half of the
day. Expect N and NE wind flow for the second half of day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N47W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N to
22N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 57W/58W from
16N to 22N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 17N to 20N between 54W and 58W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 40W eastward. Multiple upper level cyclonic
circulation centers are to the north of 30N. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 25N northward from 33W
eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N24W, to 30N23W 26N26W 26N32W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong from 29N
northward between 20W and 24W. Rainshowers are possible also from
24N between 20W and 30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N
northward between 35W and the Atlantic Ocean stationary front.

A surface ridge passes through southern sections of South Carolina
and SE Georgia, across the coastal sections of the U.S.A., into
east Texas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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