[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure
center is near 09N36W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 08N to 13N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
10N to 20N between 60W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
11N15W to 10N22W 11N26W, from 11N30W to 08N41W and 08N48W.
A surface trough is along 15N25W 13N27W 10N28W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere from 03N to 17N between 10W and 55W. isolated moderate
from 06W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 92W/93W, from the NW Gulf of
Mexico into the SW corner of the area. The rest of the Gulf of
Mexico is experiencing upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with
the Venezuela-to-north central Gulf of Mexico ridge. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 94W eastward. A surface
trough extends from 25N98W along the Mexico coast, to 21N96W and
19N94W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson and Jasper. LIFR in Conroe
and Tomball. LOUISIANA: LIFR at the NW corner of Lake
Pontchartrain, in Hammond, and in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in
Pascagoula. LIFR in McComb and in the Hattiesburg metropolitan
area. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain in Marathon
Key.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N59W to 28N62W. A
dissipating stationary front passes through 32N54W to 28N60W
25N65W and 21N69W. A shear line continues from 21N69W, cuts
across NW sections of Hispaniola, to 18N75W, just to the north
of Jamaica, to 20N87W at the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
An upper level ridge extends from 11N70W at the coast of
Venezuela, northwestward, across Cuba, into the north central Gulf
of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 14N to
20N between 73W and 80W, in an area of upper level wind speed
shear. This area of precipitation has moved across Jamaica during
the last few hours. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 70W
westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 18N84W 15N83W 12N81W.

Upper level NW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 10N to 20N between 60W and 70W.

The Monsoon Trough is in Colombia from 11N70W, 12N77W, beyond
10N85W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 73W
westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
27/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in Tegucigalpa.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment, with wind directions from the SW, the west, and
the northwest. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area and surrounding coastal waters, approaching from
the southwest and west.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago:
MVFR ceiling/few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds during the last few
observations.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge. Expect NW-to-W wind flow
during the last 12 hour or so of the 48-hour forecast. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of NW,
and then N and NE wind flow. Expect NE wind flow for day two, with
E wind flow at the end of day two. Large-scale anticyclonic wind
flow will be in the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that day one will consist of NE wind flow moving across the area,
followed by an inverted trough for the rest of day one.
Day two will consist of SE and S wind flow, followed by
anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N48W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to
23N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 53W/54W from
14N to 24N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 17N to 20N between 53W and 55W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 11N to 22N between 46W and 56W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 32N22W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 23N northward from 30W eastward. A surface
trough extends from a 1002 mb low pressure center that is near
33N21W, to 28N19W and 24N20W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N northward from 27W
eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 30W and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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