[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure
center is near 09N36W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 10N to 13N between 32W and 36W, and from 08N to 10N between
36W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 19N64W 14N65W 10N65W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 10N to 20N between 60W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N22W 12N29W 07N42W 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from
08N47W to 09N51W 08N53W and 10N60W. A surface trough is along
15N25W 13N27W 10N28W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 03N to 17N between 10W
and 50W. isolated moderate from 07W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 91W/93W, from the NW Gulf of
Mexico into the SW corner of the area. The rest of the Gulf of
Mexico is experiencing upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with
the Venezuela-to-north central Gulf of Mexico ridge.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N southward
from 93W eastward. A surface trough extends from the middle Texas
coast to 24N95W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. MVFR conditions were being experienced in
the Beaumont/Port Arthur area during the last few observations.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
from MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N59W to 28N62W. A
dissipating stationary front passes through 32N56W to 27N60W
22N64W. A shear line continues from 22N64W, cuts across central
sections of Hispaniola, just to the south of Jamaica, to 16N85W
in the coastal waters of Honduras. An upper level ridge extends
from 11N70W at the coast of Venezuela, northwestward, across Cuba,
into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
numerous strong from 14N to 18N between 74W and 79W, in an area of
upper level wind speed shear. This area of precipitation currently
is to the south of Jamaica. It is possible that this precipitation
may move across Jamaica if it remains intact and if it continues
to move northward with time. Scattered strong is off the coast of
Colombia, from 13N southward between land and 74W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 70W westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 19N64W 14N65W 10N65W,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 10N to 20N between 60W and 70W.

The Monsoon Trough is in Colombia from 11N73W, 12N78W, beyond
10N84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: Scattered strong is off the coast of Colombia,
from 13N southward between land and 74W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
27/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in Tegucigalpa.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment, with wind directions from the SW, the west, and
the northwest. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area and surrounding coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI at 26/2100 UTC:
VFR/no ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona at 27/0000
UTC: VFR, few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Rainshowers were reported in Punta Cana
during the next-to-last observation. Santiago: MVFR/few
cumulonimbus clouds. Rain was observed a few hours ago. Puerto
Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. thunder and
rain were reported during many of the last dozen or so
observations.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge. Expect NW-to-W wind flow
during the last 12 hour or so of the 48-hour forecast. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of NW,
and then N and NE wind flow. Expect NE wind flow for day two, with
E wind flow at the end of day two. Large-scale anticyclonic wind
flow will be in the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that day one will consist of NE wind flow moving across the area,
followed by an inverted trough for the rest of day one.
Day two will consist of SE and S wind flow, followed by
anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N48W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to
23N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 53W/54W from
14N to 24N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 52W and 55W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 13N to 22N between 46W and 56W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 33N20W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 23N northward from 30W eastward. A surface
trough extends from a 1003 mb low pressure center that is near
33N20W, to 28N19W and 24N20W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 30N northward from 26W
eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 26W and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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