[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 26/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence of a SE near gale, with the threat of locally gale,
in MADEIRA, AGADIR, and TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 17N southward
to Venezuela, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
12N to 16N between 60W and 64W.

A surface trough is along 59W from 10N to 17N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 24N
between 56W and 60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 09N20W 08N30W and 07N41W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 12N between 23W and
28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 02N to
13N from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate from 14N southward between
10W and 30W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N
southward from 05W eastward. Rainshowers are possible from 05N to
10N between 45W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture cover
the area from 90W eastward. An upper level ridge is in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A comparatively weak upper
level trough is along 91W/92W. A surface ridge extends from
a 1025 mb NE Louisiana high pressure center, toward the deep
south of Texas, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Scattered to broken multilayered clouds span the area.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Huntsville and Tomball. MVFR in Angleton/Lake
Jackson. MVFR in Victoria. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Patterson and
Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf
Shores.FLORIDA: LIFR in Perry.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
east of the Hispaniola-to-13N73W upper level trough.

Convective precipitation: numerous strong off the coast of
Colombia from 09N to 11N between the Colombia and 78W. Isolated
moderate to the south of the numerous strong precipitation, in the
Gulf of Uraba.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.71 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, is moving across
the area. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 25N between 64W and 75W,
around Hispaniola and Cuba, and to the E and SE of the
southeastern Bahamas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo: thunder and rain. Punta Cana: rain has ended for the
moment; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings.
Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a trough will move
across the area at the beginning of day one. The trough will be
followed by NW wind flow, and then a ridge at the end of day one.
Day two will consist of SW wind flow, as the ridge shifts eastward
for all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola for nearly all of day one.
Southerly wind flow will move across the area at the end of day
one as an anticyclonic circulation center positions itself to the
south of Puerto Rico. SW-to-W wind flow will cover the area for
the first half of day two. The rest of day two will consist of
some variable wind directions, followed by anticyclonic wind flow.
An anticyclonic circulation center will position itself to the
south of Haiti at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that day one will start with an inverted trough
across the area for the first half of the day. The second half of
day one will consist of NE wind flow. NE-to-E wind flow will move
across the area during day two.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS HISPANIOLA,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N73W...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to 28N70W, across
Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea near 13N73W. A stationary
front passes through 32N57W to 29N60W, to 22N70W and SE Cuba. A
shear line continues from SE Cuba to 19N78W and 15N83W. A surface
trough is to the ESE of the stationary front in the Atlantic
Ocean, from 28N60W 24N62W and 19N67W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 19N
between 78W and 87W, in the waters. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 16N to 25N between 64W and 75W, around
Hispaniola and Cuba, and to the E and SE of the southeastern
Bahamas. Isolated moderate elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from
19N northward between 56W and 73W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 25N53W 18N51W 07N46W. It is
possible that more than one cyclonic circulation center is
embedded in the trough. A surface trough is along 49W/50W from 10N
to 18N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 15N to 20N between 44W and 48W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W. High
level clouds are being spread northward, from 20N to 35N between
35W and 53W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N19W to 27N21W 22N24W and
17N30W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 20N northward between Africa and 30W. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 25N to
32N between Africa and 24W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 53W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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