[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 04N to 08N between 33W and
38W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 17N southward
to Trinidad, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 20N between 55W and
65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 09N20W and 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to
10N50W 12N58W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N
to 13N between 27W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 02N to 13N from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate
from 06N to 14N between 46W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture cover
the area from 92W westward. An upper level ridge is in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A comparatively weak upper
level trough is along 92W/93W. A surface ridge extends from a
1024 mb SW Mississippi high pressure center toward the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken multilayered clouds
span the area.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette and
Patterson. Elsewhere from MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA and FLORIDA:
VFR/no ceilings.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
east of the Windward Passage-to-14N74W upper level trough.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.71 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola, being on the
eastern side of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong from 17N to 22N between 68W
and 75W, around Hispaniola and Cuba, and just to the ESE of the
southeastern Bahamas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 25/0000
UTC: rain. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona as of 25/0000
UTC: thunder and rain. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceilings. Santiago: thunder and rain have ended for the moment;
few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: thunder and rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a trough will move
across the area at the beginning of day one. The trough will be
followed by NW wind flow, and then a ridge at the end of day one.
Day two will consist of SW wind flow, as the ridge shifts eastward
for all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
NW wind flow will cover Hispaniola for nearly all of day one.
Southerly wind flow will move across the area at the end of day
one as an anticyclonic circulation center positions itself to the
south of Puerto Rico. SW-to-W wind flow will cover the area for
the first half of day two. The rest of day two will consist of
some variable wind directions, followed by anticyclonic wind flow.
An anticyclonic circulation center will position itself to the
south of Haiti at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that day one will start with an inverted trough
across the area for the first half of the day. The second half of
day one will consist of NE wind flow. NE-to-E wind flow will move
across the area during day two.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N74W...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to 27N71W, through the
Windward Passage, into the Caribbean Sea near 14N74W. A stationary
front passes through 32N57W to 29N60W, to 22N70W and SE Cuba. A
shear line continues from SE Cuba to 19N78W and 15N83W. A surface
trough is to the ESE of the stationary front in the Atlantic
Ocean, from 28N60W 24N62W and 19N66W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 18N
between 78W and 87W, in the waters. Isolated moderate to locally
strong from 17N to 22N between 68W and 75W, around Hispaniola and
Cuba, and just to the ESE of the southeastern Bahamas. Isolated
moderate elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
between 56W and 70W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 25N55W 19N52W 08N48W. It is
possible that more than one cyclonic circulation center is
embedded in the trough. A surface trough is along 18N48W 13N50W.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 15N to 18N between
44W and 47W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 14N to 20N between
42W and 48W, from 07N to 13N between 46W and 54W. High level
clouds are being spread northward, from 20N to 32N between 35W and
52W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N19W to 27N21W 22N24W and
17N30W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 20N northward between Africa and 30W. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N to
32N between 15W and 24W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 54W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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