[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 14N between 44W
and 54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to
08N20W 08N30W 09N39W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong in the coastal plains of
Africa from 06N to 13N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 03N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from 05N to 17N
between 34W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale-force winds are forecast to be present at 23/0000 UTC in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern
Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to
a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 24N99W in Mexico, to
17N97W in Mexico. Please read the eastern Pacific Ocean High Seas
Forecast...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the eastern Pacific Ocean
Tropical Weather Discussion...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery to the east of the line from the upper Texas coast to the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. The drier air is related
to the upper level trough and cold front that are described in
the paragraph that covers the weather that is affecting the
Atlantic Ocean, the Bahamas and south Florida, into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea, and including the southern sections of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville. from the rest of Texas to Florida:
VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow/SW wind flow covers the area that
is to the W and NW of the line that runs from the Windward
Passage, to eastern sections of Honduras. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow, with a ridge, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
16N southward from 75W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is reaching parts of the eastern
Caribbean Sea, from 65W eastward,at the edge of the cyclonic wind
flow that is moving around an Atlantic Ocean 09N55W cyclonic
circulation center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery in the area of the cyclonic wind
flow.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
22/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.07 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area of Hispaniola.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong
is in the northern sections of the Dominican Republic between 69W
and 72W. It appears that earlier precipitation has been weakening
elsewhere across the rest of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona/Santo Domingo/
La Romana: thunder and rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings;
few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows SW wind flow, with a ridge
to the ESE and a trough to the west. The GFS MODEL forecasts for
500 MB and for 700 mb show anticyclonic wind flow across the area
during the next 48 hours.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N75W to the NW Bahamas and
South Florida, NW Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
near the coast of Honduras. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery from 20N northward from 70W
westward. The trough supports a cold front that passes through
32N68W to 29N70W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, skirting
the coast of NW Cuba, to 22N90W off the N coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to 21N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to
18N94W in the N part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to 150 nm to the ESE of
the cold front from 22N northward, and within 150 nm to 210 nm to
the ESE and S of the cold front from 24N southward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 24N
northward between 59W and 70W in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 17N
24N between 60W and 77W in Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 11N55W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N
to 14N between 50W and 60W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 14N between 50W
and 62W near Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N36W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
to 29N between 30W and 53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible in the areas of cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 29N northward
from 33W eastward. This wind flow is related to a cyclonic
circulation center that is well to the north of the area. An upper
level trough passes through 32N13W, to the Cape Verde Islands, to
27N20W. The trough and cyclonic circulation center are supporting
a cold front that passes through the Madeira Archipelago to 31N23W
31N30W and 31N36W. A stationary front continues from 31N36W beyond
32N41W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
27N northward from 40W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N to the
eastern Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary from 60W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net