[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A cold front extends across the
Gulf of Mexico at 22/1200 UTC from the west Atlantic across
south Florida near 25N81W along 23N89W 22N94W to 21N96W
generating near gale to gale force northerly winds south of the
front and west of a surface trough that extends from 21N95W to
Mexico near 18N94W. these winds will be below gale force by
22/1800 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N46W to
9N48W moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 9N-14N
between 45W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 11N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 8N32W to east of the tropical wave near 11N45W
then resumes west of the wave near 11N50W to South America near
10N61W. Scattered moderate with clusters of isolated strong
convection are from the ITCZ to 16N between 32W-45W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N
between 17W-32W, from 7N-13N between 49W-55W, and from 10N-12N
between 56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered trough extends from the Great Lakes region into
the west Atlantic just east of Florida covering the Gulf of
Mexico with northwest flow aloft supporting a cold front that
extends from the west Atlantic into the Gulf near 25N81W along
23N89W 22N94W to 21N96W. A surface trough is south of the front
extending from 21N95W to Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal
boundary and south of the front west of the surface trough. This
area west of the surface trough is where the near gale to gale
force winds are possible. A surface ridge is building south into
the Gulf in the wake of the front anchored by a series of 1024
mb highs over Illinois, Arkansas and Texas with a weaker 1022 mb
high over northeast Mexico. Strong subsidence and dry, stable
air covers the Gulf north of the front. This is giving the
remainder of the Gulf north of the front mostly clear skies with
lower humidities this afternoon. The cold front will exit the
southeast Gulf this evening. The surface ridge will build
eastward through Monday, then will be replaced by a stronger
high pressure Monday night into midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The deep layered trough over the west Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico extends south into the northwest Caribbean north of 17N
west of 74W. Upper level ridging extends from Central America
east-northeast across the Dominican Republic into the
west/central Atlantic. At the surface is a remnant surface
trough that extends from the west Atlantic across western Haiti
near 20N73W to 14N77W. Isolated showers are within 150 nm west
of the surface trough. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean south of a line
from Colombia near 10N75W to Nicaragua near 12N84W, including
Panama and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is under
mostly clear skies this afternoon. The Gulf of Mexico cold front
will move into the northwest Caribbean this evening then stall
from the Windward Passage to east Honduras Sunday before
dissipating early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are possible across the island this afternoon
as daytime heating coupled with the close proximity of a remnant
surface trough enhances orographic lifting. Sunday will bring a
greater chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as the cold
front moves into the Windward Passage and stalls. Lingering
moisture will continue the chance of showers into early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered trough extends over the west Atlantic just east
of Florida then into the northwest Caribbean covering the west
Atlantic west of 68W and supporting a cold front that extends
through 32N71W across the north Bahama Islands then over south
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near Miami. Isolated showers are
possible along the frontal boundary. A pre-frontal surface
trough extends through 32N68W along 26N73W then across the
central Bahama Islands to the north coast of Cuba near 22N78W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the
surface trough north of 27N. A second remnant surface trough
extends from 26N68W along 21N71W then across northwest Haiti
into the Caribbean near 20N73W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of this surface
trough. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by
a 1032 mb high well north of the discussion area. A broad upper
trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front
that enters the east Atlantic near 32N11W along 28N20W to 26N30W
where it becomes stationary along 27N35W to 27N40W. Little
moisture and thus limited shower activity is associated with
this front. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda
across the central Bahama Islands to central Cuba early tonight,
then stall from near 32N58W to the Windward Passage by late
Sunday night, where it will gradually dissipate into early next
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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