[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.4N 49.4W at 15/2100 UTC or
about 465 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 39N-47N between 46W-54W. See latest
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N53W to 17N50W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains weak and coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing
between 50W and 54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found from 17N to 19N between 51W and 54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N27W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 10N46W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
from 03N to 10N between 05W and 24W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 32W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper-level
trough axis extends from the Florida panhandle SW to over
northern Mexico near 26N103W. The mid-level short wave energy
remains focused over Alabama and Georgia this evening. As a
result, isolated thundershowers are taking place over the
eastern gulf W of 88W. Farther S...a trough over the SW Gulf has
been weakening as associated showers dissipate. Otherwise,
moderate E winds are noted over the gulf except for the Bay of
Campeche, where winds are light. Surface ridging will remain
anchored across the SE CONUS through Tuesday and maintain gentle
to moderate E to SE winds over the Gulf. Looking ahead...the
next cold front is expected to head SE from the Texas and
Louisiana coasts into the NW gulf by Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level anticyclone resides over the Caribbean basin
this evening. Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are noted
on satellite imagery E of 76W as upper-level convergence and mid-
level subsidence predominate. However, W of 76W moisture and
cloudiness increase as divergent SW to W flow aloft is providing
lift for convection. Numerous showers and scattered tstms are
occurring W of 79W. The convection is associated with a surface
trough analyzed along the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts.
Additional convection is taking place in close proximity to the
Monsoon Trough axis along 09N/10N stretching from northern
Colombia westward across Panama and Costa Rica.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades are expected over the
western Caribbean through Sunday night. Winds over the eastern
Caribbean will be light to moderate where ridging to the N is
weaker.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are currently observed
across the island this evening, except for some diurnal deep
convection over the island. Generally stable conditions will
persist the next few days as mid to upper-level ridge extends
overhead from the S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
W flow predominates aloft W of 55W over much of the SW North
Atlc with surface ridging anchored over the mid-Atlc and New
England coasts providing moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Along
the southern periphery of the ridging...a shear line extends
from 23N65W westward to the central Bahamas near 24N75W then to
the coast of Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring along and up to 120 nm N of the shear line
boundary. Farther E...the central Atlc is under the influence of
a cold frontal boundary extending from 32N46W SW to 24N59W to
23N65W, where the shear line begins. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring along and up to 150 nm E of the
front. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a middle to upper
level trough curves SW in water vapor imagery from 32N27W to
20N40W. Induced surface troughing extends SW from 32N27W to
24N40W. Another surface trough extends from 23N33W to 15N43W.
Given the favorable upper level environment and low-level
convergence in the vicinity of the troughs...scattered showers
are occurring over the eastern Atlc from 21N to 32N between 18W
and 28W. The most intense convection is noted within 90 nm
either side of a line from 24N28W to 30N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MCELROY
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