[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.0N 50.3W at 15/1500 UTC or
about 475 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 38N-47N between 40W-56W. See latest Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N53W to 12N49W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains fairly low-amplitude and coincides with subtle
700 mb troughing between 47W- 54W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 10N-15N between 51W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N30W to 10N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N
between the Prime Meridian and 03W...from 03N-14N between 06W-
20W...from 04N-11N between 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper level
trough axis extends from the lower Mississippi River valley SW to
over northern Mexico near 25N105W. The mid-level shortwave energy
remains focused over Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon
supporting a few isolated showers N of 28N between 89W-91W.
Farther south...the troughing is also supportive of a pair of
surface troughs analyzed across the SW Gulf. Low-level moisture
convergence in the vicinity of the surface troughs and ample
middle to upper level diffluence due to the troughing aloft are
generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 23N-
26N between 85W-90W...and from 20N-25N between 90W-97W.
Otherwise...mainly moderate E winds prevail E of 90W and gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the NW Gulf waters.
Surface ridging is expected to remain anchored across the SE CONUS
through Monday maintaining the gentle to moderate E-SE wind field.
Looking ahead...the next cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas and Louisiana coasts by late next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An broad east to west oriented upper level anticyclonic
circulation is anchored over the Caribbean basin this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite
imagery E of 75W...however W of 75W moisture and cloudiness
increase as SW to W flow aloft is providing marginal middle to
upper level diffluence. In addition...an upper level low is
centered over western Cuba near 23N81W. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring generally W of 76W...focused on a
surface trough analyzed along the Honduras and Nicaragua
coasts...and in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis along
09N/10N stretching from northern Colombia westward across Costa
Rica into the East Pacific region. Otherwise...moderate to fresh
trades are expected through the remainder of the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are currently observed
across the island this afternoon. A few isolated showers are noted
in the southwestern and northwestern adjacent coastal waters...
however skies overall are expected to remain under mostly stable
conditions as a middle to upper level ridge is centered to the NE
of the island near 20N69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Mostly westerly flow aloft prevails W of 60W over much of the SW
North Atlc with surface ridging anchored over the New England
region providing moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Within the
southern periphery of the ridging...a shear line extends from
24N66W westward to the central Bahamas near 24N75W then to the
coast of Cuba near 23N79W. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring within 120 nm N and within 210 nm S of the shear line
boundary. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence
of a forming cold frontal boundary extending from the circulation
surrounding Hurricane Nicole well to the N of the discussion area.
The front lies from 32N47W SW to 25N60W to 24N66W where the shear
line begins. Isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
within 150 nm E of the front. Finally...across the eastern
Atlc...a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 32N29W. The troughing supports a 1005
mb low centered near 34N26W with a surface trough extending SW
from the low center to 30N30W to 24N43W. Another surface trough
extends from 23N35W to 16N41W. Given the favorable upper level
dynamics and low-level convergence boundaries...scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring across a large area of the
eastern Atlc N of 17N east of the boundaries. The most intense
convection is noted within 480 nm SE semicircle of the 1005 mb
low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net