[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole at 15/0300 UTC is near
37.4N 53.3W. Nicole is moving toward the ENE, or 65 degrees,
14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 39N to
40N between 52W and 54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
07N to 10N between 24W and 30W. It is possible that the
precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 78W/79W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The wave is to the south of Jamaica.
The wave is moving into the area of an upper level trough that
is along 81W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the
area of the trough and the cyclonic wind flow from the upper
level trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 09N20W, 07N30W and 07N33W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 08N40W, and 11N44W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong within 30 NM on either side of
07N17W 08N21W 09N23W 08N25W 08N34W. Isolated moderate elsewhere
to the north of the line from 01N along the Prime Meridian, to
02N10W 04N25W 06N42W 07N58W, from 13N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the Sw corner of the area, along the coast of Mexico near
20N.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KVOA and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

in TEXAS and in LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: VFR/no
ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 81W, from Cuba into the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center
is near 16N81W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 77W westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also accompanies a trough,
that passes through an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation
center that is about 250 nm to the NE of the center of
Hispaniola, across Hispaniola, toward the coast of Colombia near
11N75W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
between 64W and 76W.

The 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.09 in
Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W and 85W, in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Any precipitation is mixed with the 81W
trough precipitation.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the
area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...at 15/0000
UTC...Barahona: Rainshowers and thunder. Santo Domingo: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rainshowers and
thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will
consist of a ridge across the area, eventually becoming W wind
flow. Expect NW wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that day one will start with SE wind flow, and
then eventually anticyclonic wind flow will span the area by the
end of day one. Expect broad anticyclonic wind flow for the rest
of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that E wind
flow will move across Hispaniola during day one. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola during the first
18 hours or so of day two, ending with SW wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N62W to 29N70W, to the
Straits of Florida, to a 21N82W northwestern Caribbean Sea
cyclonic circulation center. A surface trough is along 32N52W
24N60W 24N66W, becoming a shear axis and continuing from 24N66W
toward the coast of Cuba along 80W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 20N to 28N between 54W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N55W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 08N to 19N
between 44W and 60W.

An Eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is along 19N30W
24N30W, beyond 32N33W. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 18N to 20N between 35W and 38W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 26N northward between 24W
and33W. Isolated moderate from 20N to 26N between 20W and 40W.

A surface 1017 mb high pressure center is near 22N52W. A second
surface 1017 mb high pressure center is near 22N26W. A 1009 mb
low pressure center is near 34N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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