[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 36.5N 55.7W at 14/2100 UTC or
620 nm south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland moving east-
northeast at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 37N-39N
between 53W-55W. Swells associated with Nicole will continue to
affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the
Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. These swells
will begin to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada tonight
and continue through weekend. Nicole could become a post-
tropical cyclone tonight or on Saturday. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Atlantic extends from 15N44W to 8N48W
moving west-southwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough and is embedded within a
surge of moisture. Wave is along the western edge of an upper
ridge. No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 7N25W to 7N32W. The ITCZ is disrupted
across the remainder of the Atlantic. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 8N-10N between 18W-21W and from 7N-9N
between 21W-25W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 4N-8N between 14W-20W. Small clusters
of scattered moderate convection are from 4N-9N between 25W-35W
and from 9N-12N between 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough extends from New England to over Texas
supporting a frontal boundary inland over the central CONUS. An
upper ridge dominates the Gulf this evening anchored north of
the Yucatan near 23N87W. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air
aloft covers the Gulf. A mid to low level cyclonic circulation
is moving west along the north coast of the Yucatan supporting a
surface trough that extends from 23N87W to over the north
Yucatan peninsula to near 20N89W. A shortwave upper trough
extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba near 23N80W into the
northwest Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 24N to over Cuba between 82W-85W. A
surface ridge extends from the southeast CONUS across the
central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. This is leaving the
remainder of the Gulf with fair weather this evening. The
surface trough will meander across the southwest Gulf as the
surface ridge persist through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across
Cuba near 23N80W into the northwest Caribbean to 19N85W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
21N to over Cuba between 80W-85W. A second shortwave upper
trough extends from east Cuba near 20N77W to 14N75W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 15N
between 72W-79W. A surface trough is moving across the west
Caribbean extending from 17N83W over Central America to 10N84W
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 10N-15N
east of 75W to inland over Central America. An upper trough over
the west Atlantic dips south to 19N between 64W-77W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms inland and along
the immediate coastal waters of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
east Cuba. The east Caribbean is experiencing fair weather this
evening. Broad area of low pressure will persist across the
southwest Caribbean through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

The broad upper trough over the west Atlantic extends south to
19N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the island this evening. These showers and thunderstorms
will persist through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shortwave upper trough extends over the west Atlantic. A
surface trough extends from the south of Hurricane Nicole near
28N56W along 25N65W 24N70W to the Bahamas near 23N74W. Isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75/90 nm
either side of the surface trough. A weak 1016 mb high is in the
central Atlantic near 25N48W. An upper trough over the east
Atlantic extends along 36W to 17N generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 24W-35W and from
18N-24N between 33W-38W. Weak high pressure covers the remainder
of the east Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near 25N26W. The
west Atlantic surface trough will shift east and stall along
21N/22N on Saturday then gradually dissipate through early next
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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