[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 35.4N 59.2W at 14/0900 UTC or
586 nm south-southeast of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving east-
northeast at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 33N between 54W-63W.
See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Tropical Atlantic and extends its axis
from 17N44W to 09N45W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough
between 38W-47W and is embedded within a surge of moisture. No
significant convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 16N72W to 09N73W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough between 70W-
75W and is embedded within an area of abundant moisture. However,
no associated deep convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 07N21W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin. A surface trough
extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 20N95W with
isolated showers. To the south; a shearline extends from the
Yucatan Channel to the Florida Straits. Isolated showers are
observed north of this feature from 20N-23N between 83W-88W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
across the basin. The surface trough will meander across the
west and southwest Gulf as the surface ridge persists through
the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters.
Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough
extends from 19N80W to 13N80W. This feature combined with the
Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N from 76W-83W and a
diffluent flow aloft support cloudiness and isolated convection
between 71W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. The surface trough and the tropical wave
will continue moving westward and merge into a broad area of low
pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A diffluent
flow aloft will support isolated convection across the island in
the afternoon hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern continues to be Hurricane Nicole, which is
moving east-northeast away from Bermuda. See the Special Features
above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central
Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A
shearline extends from 24N80W to 27N70W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along and north of this feature between 72W-
77W. A surface trough extends south of the shearline from 22N76W
to 25N68W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity of
this trough. A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 23N47W. A
surface trough extends east of the Lesser Antilles from 19N54W to
12N56W with isolated convection. To the east, a 1015 mb surface
low is centered near 30N40W, with surface trough extending from
the low to 28N42W. A 1020 surface high is centered over the
eastern Atlantic near 28N29W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to
continue moving east-northeast with an increase in forward speed
through the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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