[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 34.4N 61.2W at 14/0300 UTC or
222 nm northeast of Bermuda moving east-northeast at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 32N between 55W-64W. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Tropical Atlantic extends its axis from
17N42W to 09N42W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough between
37W-45W and is embedded within a surge of moisture. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 16N69W to 09N69W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough between
68W-73W and is embedded within an area of abundant moisture.
However, no associated deep convection is noted with this wave at
this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 07N21W to 07N32W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-09N between 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 30N88W. A surface trough extends over the Bay
of Campeche from 21N96W to 19N96W with isolated showers. To the
south; an upper level trough extends from the west Atlantic
across the southern Gulf waters supporting cloudiness and
isolated showers south of 24N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh easterly winds across the basin. The surface trough will
meander across the west and southwest Gulf as the surface ridge
persists through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the southeast Caribbean waters.
Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough
extends from southern Cuba near 20N77W to 11N80W. This feature
combined with the Monsoon Trough that extends from 76W-83W and a
diffluent flow aloft support cloudiness and isolated convection
between 71W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. The surface trough and the tropical wave
will continue moving westward and merge into a broad area of low
pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A diffluent flow aloft is supporting isolated convection across
the island. This activity will dissipate overnight. Similar
activity is expected to develop each afternoon through the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern this evening continues to be Hurricane
Nicole which is moving east-northeast away from Bermuda. See
the Special Features above for details. A tropical wave is moving
across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for
details. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from
22N78W to 25N69W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity
of this boundary. A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 28N50W.
A surface trough extends east of the Lesser Antilles from 18N54W
to 11N56W with isolated convection. To the east, a 1014 mb
surface low is centered near 30N40W, with surface trough extending
from the low to 27N46W. A 1021 surface high is centered over the
eastern Atlantic near 27N27W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to
continue moving east-northeast with an increase in forward speed
through the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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