[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nicole is less organized than yesterday, but the
forecast calls for strengthening tonight and Tuesday. At 10/1500
UTC...Nicole is centered near 25.7N 65.2W or about 455 nm S of
Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Slow strengthening
is expected to begin by tonight, and Nicole is forecast to become
a hurricane on Tuesday. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 24N-27N between 63W- 67W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is relocated farther E based on satellite
imagery, an Ascat pass and observations from buoy 41041 located
near 14N46W. The wave now extends from 07N46W to 15N45W. This
feature shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on Total
Precipitable Water imagery and satellite derived winds. Only
isolated moderate showers are on either side of the wave axis.
This wave will be near the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and
extends from 06N65W to 16N64W moving W at 15 kt. The wave
coincides with abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total
Precipitable Water imagery. An Ascat pass indicates the wind shift
associated with the wave axis. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms is near the southern end of the wave axis affecting
mainly the eastern part of Venezuela. This wave is expected to
reach the central Caribbean on Tuesday and the western Caribbean
by Thursday.

Another tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea and extends from
08N78W to 16N77W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb
troughing between 75W-80W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 13N. an area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the wave axis from 12N-14N between
77W-80W. This wave is forecast to move into Central America by
Tuesday night.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
10.5N21W to 10N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 10N24W to 08N30W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 05N-08N between 16W-28W, and
from 05N-09N between 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf and extends from
23N89W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. This trough was
associated with a frontal boundary that crosses South Florida
yesterday. Th trough is generating isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The northern Gulf is under the influence of a
ridge anchored by a high over NE United States. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are noted between the ridge and the trough. The
high press will support moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the
central and eastern Gulf through likely Friday. Aloft...a trough
extends over the western Gulf while a ridge is noted over the
eastern Gulf. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough axis is
transporting abundant mid-upper level moisture across Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula. This flow is also enhancing
convection near the surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
As previously mentioned, a pair of tropical waves are moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see Tropical Waves
section for details. A ridge, extending from Florida and the
Eastern Gulf, covers the NW Caribbean. A recent Ascat pass
provides observations of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba, particularly N of 20N between 78W and 82W. Similar wind
speeds are also noted north of Cuba across the Straits of Florida.
These winds are transporting low-level clouds with embedded light
showers. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted over the most of
the basin. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
affecting the Lesser Antilles and regional waters. This convective
activity is associated with an upper-level low centered over the
Windward Islands. An upper-level anticyclone located over the
central Bahamas extends a ridge across much of the Caribbean W of
70W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Moisture is forecast to increase across the islands as a trough
extending from T.S. Nicole remains over the area. This will favor
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next few
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. Nicole is centered near 25.7N 65.2W. Please, see Special
Features section for details. A cold front is analyzed from 31N67W
to 27N70W to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W. Isolated showers are
possible within 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
prevail west of the front based on scatterometer and surface data.
The front is forecast to become nearly stationary later today with
fresh to strong winds persisting west of the front through
Wednesday. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are behind the front
spreading across Florida and the Bahamas in a NE wind flow. This
front has brought the first taste of fall to South Florida. To the
SE of the front...Tropical Storm Nicole continues drifting N and
covers a large portion of the SW North Atlantic region with
cloudiness and ongoing convection. Farther east...an upper level
low is noted on water vapor imagery near 32N33W that supports a
cold front that enters the forecast area near 31N30W then
continues SW then W and NW along 25N40W to 31N52W where it becomes
stationary. The front is associated with a 1012 mb low pressure
situated near 32N30W. This low will move into the forecast waters
reaching a position near 30N36W in about 24 hours. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are within about 120 nm ahead of the front N
of 29N. Finally...the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N16W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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