[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.0N 65.2W at 10/0900 UTC
or about 440 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-
27N between 61W-67W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N49W to 15N46W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 43W-51W
and remains beneath southwesterly upper level flow. As a result...
only isolated moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 42W-48W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N64W to 16N63W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 58W-66W and
abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-16N between
58W-61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 05N-11N between 61W-65W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N78W to 16N76W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 73W-81W...and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N
between 71W-78W. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N-15N
between 76W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N26W to 09N35W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 04N-13N between 14W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 20W-27W...and from
05N-11N between 33W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the central Gulf from near
26N89W into the SW Gulf near 21N93W providing focus for isolated
showers and tstms occurring generally S of 25N between 86W-95W. The
troughing also indicates broad cyclonic winds across the basin...
primarily moderate to occasional fresh E-NE winds...as surface
ridging builds in across the eastern CONUS to the north. The
surface trough is expected to drift westward through late Tuesday
night with little change in the synoptic pattern forecast through
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level anticyclonic flow covers much of the Caribbean W of
70W this morning stemming from a ridge anchored over the SW North
Atlc near 27N74W. With a tropical wave along 77W...scattered
showers and tstms are focused in the vicinity of the wave and
across northern Colombia...due also in part to the close proximity
of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N. Other scattered showers and
strong tstms are occurring across portions of Central America from
10N-17N between 80W-90W. Farther east...an upper level low is
centered over the Windward Islands near 13N62W providing support
for scattered showers and tstms S of 16N between 58W-62W. This
convection is located on the eastern convergent side of a tropical
wave along 64W. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the
tropical waves...mainly moderate trades prevail and are expected
to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this morning as
Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE across the SW
North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to continue as upper
level ridging and NE flow aloft remain over the island through
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough moving off the
New England coast with a mid-level shortwave in the vicinity of
38N66W. With the remnant surface low of Matthew analyzed as a 996
mb low centered off the Delmarva region near 38N68W...the
associated cold front is analyzed into the discussion area near
32N67W extending S-SW to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W. Isolated
showers are possible within 120 nm E of the front. To the SE of
the front...Tropical Storm Nicole continues drifting N and covers
a large portion of the SW North Atlc region with cloudiness and
ongoing convection. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
18N-28N between 56W-67W. Farther east...an upper level low is
noted on water vapor imagery near 32N33W that supports a cold
front analyzed from 32N29W to 25N40W to 27N46W. Widely scattered
showers and tstms are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm SE of the
front...while isolated showers are elsewhere within 90 nm either
side of the front W of 33W. Finally...the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high
centered near 34N15W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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