[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is centered near 35.2N 73.7W at
09/1500 UTC or about 87 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered showers are from 37N-45N between 65W-77W. The center of
Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North
Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to continue over the warning area through early this
afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. There is
a danger of life-threatening inundation through this afternoon
along the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Rainfall
will diminish across the coastal Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon.
Additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch are possible
across Delaware and eastern Maryland. Life-threatening flooding
will continue over portions of eastern North Carolina that have
received record rains from Matthew. Swells generated by Matthew
will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic
coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.0N 65.4W at 09/1500 UTC
or about 500 nm S of Bermuda and remains nearly stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous heavy showers
and isolated tstms are from 21N to 24N between 65W and 67W.
Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 18N to 26N
between 57W and 69W. A combination of swells associated with
Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect
Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create
dangerous surf conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
14N with axis near 42W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
some dry air is still depicted in TPW and Meteosat enhanced
imagery. Diffluent upper level flow generated by a short-wave
upper trough support scattered showers from 09N to 13N between 33W
and 41W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic just E of the Lesser Antilles
extending from 06N to 17N with axis near 58W, moving W at 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. Except for the region near the Windward
Islands, the wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear, and patches of dry air are in the wave environment
according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm W of the wave axis S of 11N.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 09N to
19N with axis near 73W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear.
Abundant low level moisture and diffluent flow at the upper levels
support scattered showers from 12N to 16N between 72W and 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N24W to 06N33W to 04N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered showers are from 04N-07N
E of 19W and within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the NE CONUS and NW Atlantic waters with a base
reaching 28N. This trough aloft supports a cold front that at 1500
UTC extends from south Florida near 25N81W to 22N90W to the Bay of
Campeche near 20N97W. Mostly dry air and subsidence remain aloft behind
the front resulting in clear skies. Low to middle level moisture
support isolated showers within 120 nm ahead of the front in the
SW Gulf. Fresh to occasional strong NE winds are expected to
persist through tonight N of the front. The front is forecast to
move east of the Gulf by Monday as surface ridging holds across
much of the eastern CONUS providing moderate to fresh E-NE winds
Monday into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Nicole continue nearly-stationary over SW N
Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico, thus supporting scattered to
isolated showers over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin
Islands, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. A tropical wave is moving
across the central Caribbean supporting scattered showers from
12N to 16N between 72W and 75W. See the tropical waves section for
further details. Similar convection is within 90 nm off the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize coasts and ahead of a cold front
moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are in
the SW basin S of 13N being supported by the EPAC monsoon trough.
Outside of the influence of the tropical wave, mainly moderate
SE flow prevail E of the wave axis and gentle to moderate E-NE
winds prevail W of the wave axis. By tonight, the next tropical
wave will reach the Lesser Antilles and the cold front over the
Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean. Showers over Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola associated with Nicole will continue through
Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers associated with Tropical Storm
Nicole continue across the Island as this cyclone is nearly-
stationary over SW N Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico. Convection
is expected to continue through Monday, but will resume again
Tuesday associated with a cold front that will enter the NW
Caribbean tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main concern in the forecast waters is Tropical Storm Nicole
located over SW N Atlantic waters N of Puerto Rico, which is
generating numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms from 21N to
24N between 65W and 67W and scattered heavy showers and isolated
tstms from 18N to 26N between 57W and 69W. A combination of
swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew are
expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These
swells will create dangerous surf conditions. For winds and seas
associated with both Nicole and Matthew, see the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC and
also the special features section above. Farther NE...an upper
level trough noted on water vapor imagery with axis near 36W supports
a cold front analyzed from 30N35W to 28N41W to 28N49W where it becomes
stationary to 30N54W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within
2010 nm E of the front N of 26N. Finally, the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered near 34N15W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net