[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is centered near 34.9N 75.1W at
09/0900 UTC or about 25 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving E at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate convection is from 36N-42N between 70W-79W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.3N 65.7W at 09/0900 UTC
or about 480 nm S of Bermuda and remains nearly stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 20N-26N between 58W-68W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N42W to 12N40W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 37W-44W
and remains beneath westerly upper level flow. As a result...no
significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 08N56W to 16N51W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 49W-58W and
abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 08N-12N between 56W-59W. Isolated moderate convection is from
15N-18N between 46W-52W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N72W to 18N69W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the central
Caribbean Sea between 68W-53W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 15N. No significant convection
is occurring with the wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N21W to 07N27W to 04N37W to 05N42W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-08N between 09W-17W...from 06N-13N between
27W-36W...and from 02N-04N between 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the western Carolinas and adjacent coastal SW North
Atlc waters supporting a cold front extending from northern
Florida near 30N83W SW to 23N90W then W to the Mexico coast near
22N97W. Mostly dry air and subsidence remain aloft over the
eastern Gulf waters...however moisture increases across the far
SW Gulf and east-central Mexico. This moisture along with the
presence of the cold front is generating isolated showers and
tstms S of 22N between 89W-99W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
basin N of the front is under mostly clear skies and fair
conditions with fresh to occasional strong NE winds that are
expected to persist through Sunday night. The front is forecast to
move east of the Gulf by Monday as surface ridging holds across
much of the eastern CONUS providing moderate to fresh E-NE winds
Monday into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level anticyclonic flow covers much of the Caribbean this
evening stemming from a ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near
27N74W. Convective debris cloudiness continues to move S-SW over
the basin between 63W-73W due to the convection associated with
Tropical Storm Nicole centered well N of Puerto Rico this morning.
Some embedded widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring N of 14N between 63W-74W. In addition...a tropical wave
along 71W is providing favorable dynamic lift to support this
convection. Farther west...an upper level low is centered over
southern Guatemala providing support for scattered showers and
tstms S of 18N W of 81W...including interior portions of Central
America. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the tropical
wave...mainly moderate trades prevail E of the wave axis and
gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail W of the wave axis. The next
tropical wave...currently along 54W...is forecast to reach the
Lesser Antilles by Sunday night into early Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island this
morning as Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE
across the SW North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to
continue as upper level ridging and NE flow aloft remain over the
island in addition to a tropical wave analyzed S of the island
moving west through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Between Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew and Tropical Storm
Nicole...the SW North Atlc is under the influence of an upper
level anticyclonic circulation centered near 27N74W. Mostly
middle to upper level moisture and cloudiness is noted on
satellite imagery this morning in the vicinity of the ridge...
however a few low-topped isolated showers are possible N of 25N
between 70W-79W as Matthew continues to move E. Much of the
moisture and cloudiness associated with Tropical Storm Nicole
remains to the east and south of the storm center providing widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms generally from 18N-27N
between 51W-70W. Farther NE...an upper level low is noted on
water vapor imagery near 36N37W that supports a cold front
analyzed from 32N36W to 30N44W then becomes stationary to 32N54W.
Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 29N within
180 nm SE of the front...while isolated showers are elsewhere N
of 26N between 35W-50W generally S of the front. Finally...the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1018 mb high centered near 25N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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