[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 090249
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

A combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal
surface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing
extratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection
near the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane.
However, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to
the southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal
convection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory.  The
cyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and
become an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens
though, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle
near eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the
intensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so.  After that,
Matthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system
between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update
of the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 070/12.  Matthew is embedded in the
mid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to
move the system east-northeastward and then eastward until
dissipation.  The new forecast track is a little south of the
previous track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it
after that time.

The forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North
Carolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the
hurricane watch.  Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia
are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
are shifting to the west side of the circulation.  The winds are
expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of
eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during
the next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force
winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.  There is also an increased threat of storm
surge in these areas.  Please see the Prototype Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 34.1N  76.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 34.6N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  10/0000Z 34.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/1200Z 33.8N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/0000Z 33.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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