[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 090240
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

Strong convection continues to fire near the center of Nicole,
although microwave data still suggest the center is on the
northern edge of the convection.  Dvorak estimates range from 37 to
55 kt for this advisory, so the initial wind speed is held at 45
kt. Northerly wind shear is forecast to continue for the next couple
of days, perhaps at a slightly weaker value than the current 35 kt.
By about Tuesday, almost all of the global models drop the shear
significantly, which will probably allow Nicole to restrengthen
since it will be moving over very warm waters.  The guidance is more
insistent on this cycle that Nicole will become a hurricane again by
day 4, and the official forecast goes with this scenario.

The initial motion is 180/4, a little to the left of earlier.
Nicole should meander for a day or so before a ridge to the east
builds, causing the tropical cyclone to move slowly northward until
about day 2.  Some interaction with the remnants of Matthew are
likely to steer Nicole to the northwest for about a day until Nicole
turns back to the north and northeast in increasing southwesterly
flow.  Models are in good agreement on this unusual Atlantic track
scenario, so very little change was made to the previous NHC
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 24.4N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.0N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 24.4N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 25.2N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 26.3N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 28.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 30.5N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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