[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 062041
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has continued to increase in organization
this afternoon.  A small central dense overcast has become even more
symmetric during the last few hours, with an eye intermittently
visible.  Dvorak classifications of T4.5 from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT
values support increasing the intensity to 75 kt.

Nicole is being affected by northerly shear associated with outflow
of Hurricane Matthew, but it is suspected that this shear is
confined to a narrow layer at upper levels since the cyclone has
been unexpectedly strengthening.  Given the current trends,
additional intensification seems possible, at least during the short
term. However, a mid- to upper-level trough digging over the central
Atlantic should cause the shear over Nicole to greatly increase in 1
to 2 days and result in some weakening.  There could also be some
interaction of Nicole with a piece of the trough that breaks off in
2 to 3 days, as shown in the global models, but it is unclear how
this could affect its intensity.  The large-scale environment
is forecast to potentially become more conducive for re-
intensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown
around that time.  The new intensity forecast is above the
multi-model consensus and higher than the previous one at the end
of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 330/06.  Steering currents are likely
to collapse very soon as Nicole finds itself in a col area, making
an erratic northward motion likely for the next 12 hours or so.  A
blocking ridge in the wake of the aforementioned trough should then
impart a slow southerly motion for a couple of days. By 72 hours, a
turn back toward the northwest or north-northwest is forecast as a
mid-level high builds to the east of Nicole.  Although there is
considerable spread in the model guidance, this general scenario is
shown except for the ECMWF, which is well to the right of the other
model solutions through the next 3 days.  The new track forecast is
of low confidence, is faster than the previous one, and is between
the previous forecast and an average of the ECMWF/GFS output.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 27.5N  65.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 27.9N  65.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 27.6N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.0N  64.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 26.5N  64.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 26.4N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 27.4N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 29.4N  67.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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