[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 061744
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images.  The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates.  Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt.  Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely.  By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time.  The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.

Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1800Z 27.3N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 27.7N  65.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 27.9N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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