[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 042037
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.
All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly
strong northwesterly shear.  The advisory intensity is held at 45
kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data.  Nicole
is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next
several days, which should eventually result in weakening.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of
days, to the southwest of a mid-level high.  Later in the forecast
period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and
this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days.  The
official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few
days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 25.0N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 26.5N  63.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 27.8N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 29.0N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 29.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 29.0N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 30.0N  63.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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