[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 041506
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made
landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,
but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional
imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt
earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the
plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in
this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew
interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the
environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4
status for the next 2 days.  Some weakening is anticipated by the
end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.

Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is
moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt.  The hurricane
is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn
toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east
of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward
allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued
for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 18.9N  74.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N  74.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 22.0N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 24.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 25.6N  77.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 29.5N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 34.0N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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