[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 040853
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this
morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has
become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the
northeast quadrant.  During the final passage through the eye a
little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of
934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt.
The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in
Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still
moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt.  Matthew is expected
to move generally northward around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge today and tonight.  This will bring the center of
Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the
next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After
moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn
north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western
portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of
the hurricane.  Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the
western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then
north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east
coast of the United States late in the period.  Most of the
dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida
and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5.  The NHC
track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted
slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus
of the ECMWF and GFS.  Users are reminded not to focus on the exact
forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous
storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.

Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible
today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should
allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next
couple of days.  Gradual weakening is predicted later in the
forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and
cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane
during the entire 5 day period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later
this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida
Keys.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 17.8N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.2N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.0N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.8N  75.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 24.6N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 28.0N  79.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 31.7N  79.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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