[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 040257
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured
two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along
with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure
measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the
previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 125 kt.

Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.
There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast
reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,
followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That
portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours.   The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

Only slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due
to Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and
eastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters
between Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs
of near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly
wind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of
weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow
morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 16.9N  74.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.3N  74.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.8N  75.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.4N  76.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 26.6N  78.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 30.0N  79.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 33.3N  77.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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