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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MATTHEW NEARING THE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has replaced the Hurricane Watch with
a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.  Tropical
storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest
turn Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will pass near or over southwestern Haiti during the next few
hours, move near eastern Cuba later today, and move near or over
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and
Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern
portion of Haiti and will spread northward today.  Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the
southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti
today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas
later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night
and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days.  Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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