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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON HAITI...
...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 74.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast by Wednesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Matthew will pass near or over southwestern Haiti
this morning, move near eastern Cuba late today, and move
near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew
is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the southwestern
portion of Haiti within the next several hours.  Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the
southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, and the central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
spreading across Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba later this morning, the
southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central Bahamas Tuesday
night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 3 inches, isolated 6 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days.  Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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