[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 14.7N 75.0W at 03/0300 UTC or
about 282 nm SW of Port au Prince Haiti and about 222 nm SSE of
Kingston Jamaica moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N to 15N
between 73W and 76W. Similar convection along with tstms is
observed from 13N to 17N between 70W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 69W and 78W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N to
17N with an associated 1012 mb low centered near 11N41W. Both the
wave axis and the low center has been moving W at 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer
wind shear N of 14N. Upper level diffluence and abundant low level
moisture in the wave environment as seen in CIRA LPW support
scattered showers from 09N to 14N between 40W and 47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N25W; it then resumes near 12N30W to 11N41W to 08N46W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
to isolated showers are from 02N to 06N E of 27W and from 11N to
19N between 28W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered trough extends from the Lower Great Lakes SW across
the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley, S across the central Gulf
to a base over Guatemala. The trough aloft has weaken, thus the
stationary front that it supported across the Gulf has started to
dissipate along 30N81W to 28N82W to 25N90W where a surface trough
trails to 24N97W. Diffluent flow generated by the trough aloft and
broad upper ridging covering the Caribbean support scattered
showers and tstms in the SE basin ahead of the frontal boundary,
including the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. The front
is expected to gradually become diffuse through Monday with gentle
to occasional moderate E-SE winds expected as ridging builds
southwestward across the western Gulf Monday night and Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is major Hurricane Matthew located
in the central Caribbean. An upper level ridge covers much of the
Caribbean E of 83W while an upper level trough axis extends across
the central Gulf to a base over Guatemala. Diffluent flow between
these two upper features support isolated to scattered showers and
tstms W of 80W, including the Yucatan Channel. Hurricane
conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and
eastern Cuba Monday night. Matthew is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and
the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible
isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western
Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across
eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall
will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. See
the special features section for details. GOES QPE data show
rainfall accumulation of up to one inch over the past 6 hours. Otherwise
as Matthew tracks generally northward the next few days...the
trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday night into
Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern
Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re- establish
from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness and showers associated with the outer bands of Matthew
continue to move over the island tonight. Matthew is expected to
reach the SW tip of Haiti by Monday evening bringing strong
winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening flash flooding...mud
slides...dangerous storm surge...and large destructive waves. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches
across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the
Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 20 inches. See the special features section for details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent wind flow generated by the upper trough across the Gulf
of Mexico and the broad ridge covering the Caribbean and the
southern Bahamas support scattered showers and tstms N of 25N W
of 74W. The north-central Atlc is under the influence of a
weakening surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near
26N42W. The other important feature in the Atlc is a 1012 mb low
centered near 21N55W with a surface trough extending NE to 23N52W
and W-SW to 19N60W. The low is supported aloft by an upper level
low centered near 21N55W. Scattered showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring within 120 nm NW semicircle. Otherwise...as
Matthew tracks northward...the weak ridging in place will shift
east as Matthew moves into the SW North Atlc region by Tuesday
afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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