[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Matthew is centered near 14.5N 75.0W at 03/0000 UTC or
about 290 nm SSW of Port au Prince Haiti and about 230 nm SSE of
Kingston Jamaica moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from
13N-16N between 71W-76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 10N-19N between 68W-79W. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N41N to 18N42W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing S of 17N between
36W-45W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the
vicinity of 10N40W. In addition...a weak 1010 mb low is noted
along the axis near 12N that remains embedded within the Monsoon
Trough axis. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-15N between
38W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N20W to 13N29W to 11N40W to 09N44W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 04N-11W between 06W-15W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-18N between 27W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A deep layered low is centered over much of southern Ontario
Canada this evening with troughing dipping S-SW over the
Mississippi River valley and over the eastern Gulf E of 91W. The
trough supports a stationary front extending across the central
Florida peninsula to 28N83W into a 1014 mb low near 26N90W then
westward to 27N97W. A weak surface trough trails SW from the low
center to 22N96W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
across central portions of the basin generally from 23N-28N
between 85W-91W. A few other area of isolated showers are
occurring across the remaining Gulf waters...mostly notably along
and N of the stationary front W of 90W...and across the SE Gulf in
the area of maximized middle to upper level lifting dynamics
within and to the E of the upper level troughing aloft. The front
is expected to gradually become diffuse through the overnight
period into Monday with gentle to occasional moderate E-SE winds
expected as ridging builds southwestward across the western Gulf
Monday night and Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the central
Caribbean. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of
85W while an upper level trough axis extends from over the Yucatan
peninsula S-SW to over Guatemala this evening. The upper level
troughing is supportive of isolated showers and tstms across the
NW Caribbean. Otherwise as Matthew tracks generally northward the
next few days...the trades will continue to be disrupted through
Tuesday night into Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be
centered north of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades
will begin re-establishing themselves from east to west thereafter
through the second half of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Cloudiness and convection associated with the outer bands of
Matthew continues moving over the island this evening. Matthew
remains centered S-SW of Hispaniola with widely scattered showers
and tstms expected to continue through the overnight hours into
Monday. Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti by Monday
evening bringing strong winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening
flash flooding...mud slides...dangerous storm surge...and large
destructive waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The deep layered trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
providing much of the far western portions of the SW North Atlc
west of 73W with moist and unstable southwesterly flow aloft. This
trough supports a stationary front extending from 32N79W to the
Florida peninsula near 29N81W with scattered showers and tstms
occurring N of 24N W of 74W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc
is under the influence of a weakening surface ridge anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 38N54W that extends an axis SW through
Bermuda to 30N70W. Isolated low-topped showers continue within the
southern periphery of the ridge...generally S of 27N between
60W-74W. The other important feature in the Atlc is a 1012 mb low
centered near 21N54W with a surface trough extending NE to 23N52W
and W-SW to 19N59W. The low is supported aloft by an upper level
low centered near 21N55W. Scattered showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring from 19N-24N between 47W-58W. Otherwise...as
Matthew tracks northward...the weak ridging in place will shift
east as Matthew moves into the SW North Atlc region by Tuesday
afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net