[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 14.0N 74.6W at 02/1500 UTC or
about 304 nm south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti moving W at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Matthew is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Numerous strong convection is from 13N to 15N between 70W
and 75W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to
18N between 68W and 79W. Matthew is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches
over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba,
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will produce life- threatening flash floods and mud
slides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1010
mb low near 12N39W to 19N41W, moving W at 15-20 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is in a moist region as depicted in the total
precipitable water imagery,however, Saharan dry air and dust is
just west of the wave environment. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles from 17N62W to
10N62W, moving W at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is
in a moist region as depicted in the total precipitable water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 9N-12N between
60W-64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 10N20W to 10N38W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N42W and continues to 09N50W to 13N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of the monsoon trough from
12N-16N between 26W-38W. Isolated moderate convection is N of
the ITCZ from 12N-17N between 48W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from Central Florida near Cocoa
Beach to Tampa and continues to the Central Gulf of Mexico near
26N90W to the W Gulf near 26N96W. Scattered moderate convection
is over the Central Gulf from 24N-28N between 86W-91W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere within 60 nm of the front.
Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf from 23N-25N
between 80W-83W. 5-10 kt winds are noted on both sides of the
front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
Gulf with axis along 85W. Expect the front to gradually become
diffuse Monday with light E-NE surface winds to follow due to
ridging.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in
the Central Caribbean. See the special features section for
details. Scattered showers are off the coast of W Cuba...and
over the Gulf of Honduras. More showers are noted on radar both
north and south of Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
easterlies. In the upper levels, westerlies prevail over the
Caribbean except over Matthew. Expect Matthew to follow a mostly
northerly track over the next three to four days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection together with high surf is along
the southern coast of Hispaniola due to Hurricane Matthew.
Expect Matthew to move closer to Haiti over the next several
days. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, while a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic
from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front extends over the Western Atlantic from
31N79W to Central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Isolated moderate
convection is from 26N to beyond 31N between 74W-81W. A 1011 mb
low is over the Central Atlantic near 20N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 20N-23N between 48W-56W. A 1020 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 30N22W. Expect Hurricane Matthew to
move into the Atlantic north of E Cuba Tuesday, and continue
over the Western Atlantic S of 30N for the next three days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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