[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 14.1N 74.3W at 02/1200 UTC or
about 300 nm south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti moving NW
at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Matthew is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Numerous strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 69W-
75W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to
18.5N between 67W and 77W. Matthew is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches
over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba,
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will produce life- threatening flash floods and mud
slides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N to
20N with an associated 1010 mb low centered near 12N38W. Both the
wave and the low has been moving at 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear from 9N
to 15N. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show dry air pockets W of
the wave axis and Meteosat enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air
and dust in the wave environment, which is inhibiting deep
convection at the time. Scattered to isolated showers are within
210 nm SE semicircle of the low and from 14N to 16N between 34W
and 38W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic just E of the Lesser Antilles
extending from 10N to 20N with axis near 60W, moving W at 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable
deep layer wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb
show pockets of dry air in its environment. This is inhibiting
convection at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 13N17W to 10N28W to 08N42W.
Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 11N to 16N
between 24W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad deep layered low centered over Michigan with troughing
dipping southward to a base over the north-central Gulf continue
to support a stationary front that extends across the northern
Florida peninsula to 28N82W to 26N90W to 26N96W. Moisture inflow
from the Caribbean and the SW N Atlantic water support scattered
to isolated showers within 120 nm either side of the frontal
boundary. Similar convection is in the SE basin S of 26N E of
85W. Gentle to moderate E-NE flow dominates the basin, the
strongest winds being in the vicinity N and S of the front. The
front is expected to gradually become diffuse today and a weak
ridge will set in Monday through Wednesday extending from the SE
CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin continues to be major Hurricane
Matthew located in the south-central Caribbean. See the special
features section for details. A short-wave upper level trough
extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico to a base over Honduras. To the
east, a broad upper level ridge covers the remainder Caribbean and
generates diffluent flow in the NW basin to support isolated
showers W of 80W. Otherwise, as Matthew tracks N-NW across the
central Caribbean through Tuesday, the trades will continue to be
disrupted. Trades will begin to re-establish from east to west
Wednesday through early next weekend. The next tropical wave will
move into the E Caribbean later this morning and will be absorbed
by Matthew Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

High level cloudiness associated with Hurricane Matthew in the
south-central Caribbean continue to cover the Island. The GOES QPE
imagery show rain accumulations up to one inch over central and
SE Dominican Republic during the last 6 hours. The center of
Matthew is expected to pass through SW Haiti early Tuesday
morning then northward through the Windward Passage and E Cuba.
Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to
25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over the Dominican Republic
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides. See special features for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers prevail in the SW North Atlc west of 73W ahead
of a stationary front across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. A
1011 mb low is NE of the tropical wave that will enter the
Caribbean Sea later today. The low is located near 20N53W and is
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms within 210 nm NE
semicircle of the low. There is a low chance for this disturbance
to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days. The
remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1019 mb high NE of the forecast waters. Hurricane
Matthew will move into the SW North Atlc Tuesday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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