[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N91W to 26N95W to 25N97W. The
pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building
behind it will is generating NW to N strong to gale-force winds
south of 25N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. Gale
force winds are forecast to diminish Thursday early morning or before
sunrise. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence or threat of a SE near gale to locally severe
gale in IRVING and MADEIRA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N13W to 6N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ
that continues along 7N22W to 5N32W to a 1010 mb low centered near
8N43W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from
3N-13N between 20W and 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level low centered between Wisconsin and
Minnesota extends a trough S across the western Gulf to a base
over southern Mexico. This upper feature supports a cold front
that at 1500 UTC extends from 30N91W to 26N95W to 25N97W and a
squall line ahead of the front from 29N90W to 23N95W. The
pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building
behind it will is generating NW to N strong to gale-force winds
south of 25N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. For
further details see special features. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are in the vicinity of the squall line from 25N to 28N
between 91W and 95W. Except for the gale wind area, and S to SW
fresh to strong winds E of the front N of 29N to 86W, moderate SE
flow covers the remainder basin. GOES IFR show medium
probabilities of fog between the squall line and the cold front
while surface observations report fog and haze N of 27N W of 88W.
Vessels navigating in this region should exercise caution as
visibility may be low. The cold front will extend across northern
Florida SW to the W Bay of Campeche Thursday before sunrise and
will exit south Florida Friday near sunrise. Gale force winds are
forecast to diminish early in the morning on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level low centered over the NE Caribbean W of the Leeward
Islands continue to support a 1014 mb low near 19N63W with
associated through extending from the low center SW to 12N66W.
These two features support passing showers over Puerto Rico and
adjacent waters, and scattered heavy showers in the Windward
Islands and adjacent SE Caribbean waters. In the SW basin, the
monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to northern Colombia,
thus supporting scattered to isolated showers S of 13N. Middle to
upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from aloft
support fair weather elsewhere. The low center will continue to
move west N of the NE Caribbean and weaken to a surface trough
over Puerto Rico Thursday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper level ridging along with strong dry air subsidence from
aloft support fair weather across the Island. Fair weather is
forecast today but a moist airmass will move across the region
Thursday through Friday, thus increasing the chance of showers
for the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough in the central Atlantic continue
to support a cold front that extends from 30N38W to 27N50W to
26N55W where it starts to dissipate. A dissipating stationary front
is in the E Atlantic from 30N13W to 27N21W to 29N30W being
supported by a middle to upper level low centered in NE Atlantic
waters near 41N19W. There is no convection associated to any of
these fronts. However, diffluent flow between these fronts along
with a surface trough extending from 30N37W to 20N40W support
scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 27W and 39W. A
1014 mb low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near 19N63W with
associated surface trough along 25N59W SW to the low to the SE
Caribbean. This area of low pressure is supporting scattered to
isolated showers from 10N-17N between 50W and 62W. The next cold
front will move off the Georgia coast Thursday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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