[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 09-hour forecast consists of a cold front: 30N91W 25N96W
21N97.5W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights
reaching 9 feet, to the S of 24.5N to the W of the cold front.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence or threat of a SE near gale to locally severe
gale in IRVING and MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W, to 05N30W,
06N35W, 05N38W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near
08N42W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 13N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW wind
flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale
system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico and
the Caribbean Sea. A cold front, a surface trough, and a squall
line are along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer
trough that is in the central U.S.A. The cold front will move into
the Gulf of Mexico later today and it is forecast to move through
the Gulf of Mexico during the next 3 days. Small craft advisories
are in effect along the entire U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico,
from Texas to Florida. Small craft should exercise caution also,
elsewhere, along the coasts of each state.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KATP.

MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KGHB, KGRY,
KEIR, KSPR, KMDJ, KIKT, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Brownsville. MVFR in Port Isabel and Harlingen.
LOUISIANA: thunder and rain in New Iberia and Lafayette, in Baton
Rouge. MVFR in Port Fourchon, Hammond, and Slidell. light rain at
the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. MISSISSIPPI: thunder and rain
and McComb and in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, in
Gulfport and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Mobile. FLORIDA: light
rain in parts of the Pensacola metropolitan area. MVFR in Mary
Esther and Destin, in Marianna, Apalachicola. IFR in Tallahassee.
LIFR in Cross City. rain at the NAS in Key West westward in the
Florida Panhandle, and in parts of the Panama City metropolitan
area, in Apalachicola.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from the upper level trough of 24
hours ago covers the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W from
coastal Venezuela to 20N. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is
along 20N60W 16N64W 12N66W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 20N between 54W
and 67W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N
between 50W and 70W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the eastern Caribbean
Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the trough.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of broken low level to
middle level clouds, in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea,
and in the NW corner of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia and
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W
westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N-to-NE wind flow is moving across the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. A surface trough is along 22N68W 18N69W
in eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in
the coastal waters and coastal plains, such as from 15N northward
in the waters that are to the south of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:  Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet in each city.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NE wind flow
will be moving across Hispaniola at the start of day one. An
anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of SE Cuba. The
anticyclonic center will move to Hispaniola by the end of day one,
bringing anticyclonic wind flow everywhere. The anticyclonic
center will move into the Caribbean Sea, and be about 120 nm to
the south of Haiti. Expect more anticyclonic wind flow during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic
circulation center will be about 380 nm to the north of Haiti.
Expect NE wind flow during day one. The anticyclonic circulation
center will move during day two, to a position that is about 640
nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Expect NE-to-E wind flow during much
of day two, becoming SE wind flow at the end of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow
will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean
anticyclonic circulation center that will be about 560 nm to the
NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of more NE-to-E wind flow
across Hispaniola, for the first half of the day. The rest of day
two will consist of an inverted trough moving across the area.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N40W
to 24N40W, to 17N43W and 10N43W. This trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N44W to 26N57W, and then dissipating
stationary from 26N57W to 25N70W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 13N northward between 30W and 50W.

An upper level trough now is passing through the coastal areas of
Africa from 10N northward. A cold front passes through 32N13W to
31N14W. A stationary front continues from 31N14W to 28N24W and
30N31W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from
20N northward between Africa and 34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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