[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, then move southeast across the
basin through Saturday, and extending from South Florida to the
southwest Gulf by early Sunday. Strong high pressure will build
behind the front, allowing winds to gale force to develop over
portions of the west central and southwest Gulf along the coast of
Mexico, from Tampico to south of Veracruz starting Saturday
through mid Sunday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across west Africa into the eastern
Atlantic from 07N13W to 09N18W then transitions to the ITCZ from
that point to 10N35W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N-20N between 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb
surface high centered south of the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W.
This feature is maintaining a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the basin with fair skies. A deep low pressure is
emerging out of the Colorado Rockies into the central Plains with
an associated cold front currently entering northern Mexico. This
front will enter the northwest Gulf by Friday night. A cool
airmass building behind the front will bring strong northerly
winds over much of the Gulf through late Sunday, reaching gale
force over the west central and southwest Gulf. See the section
above for details. Winds and seas will diminish by early next
week as the high pressure shifts eastward through the Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front was analyzed across the western Caribbean
extending from 16N86W to 19N81W to eastern Cuba near 20N75W.
Isolated showers are observed along this boundary between 82W-85W.
A stationary 1008 mb surface low is centered near 12N81W. This low
is enhancing convection mainly south of Jamaica between 75W-82W.
Although the overall pattern is not as organized as it has been,
a tropical depression could form over the next several days as the
low pressure continues to meander over the southwest Caribbean. To
the east, a surface trough extends south of the Mona Passage from
18N68W to 12N68W. Isolated moderate convection is observed along
the northern half of the trough. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered moderate convection across the Windward
islands, northern Venezuela and their adjacent waters south of 14N
and east of 66W. Looking ahead, a reinforcing front will enter the
northwest Caribbean on Sunday bringing a surge of strong northerly
winds across the western Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and
along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama into
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected along
and south of the merged frontal boundary.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper-level ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the
approaching cold front from the north is creating a diffluent
environment across the island. This pattern is enhancing
cloudiness and isolated convection across the area. The cold
front is expected to stall over northwest Haiti and the Windward
Passage tonight, therefore a similar weather regime will persist
through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of high pressure extends across the eastern CONUS and
west Atlantic mainly west of 67W with fair weather. To the east, an
upper-level trough reaching from New England to the central
Bahamas is supporting a cold front that extends from a 997 mb low
north of Bermuda to the southern Bahamas near 20N74W, then
continues as a stationary front across eastern Cuba and west
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within
200 nm east of the front. An upper low is in the east Atlantic
near 28N28W supporting a surface trough that extends 31N30W to
27N30W. A large surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
central and east Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure
centered north of area near 41N36W. Expect through the next 24
hours for the west Atlantic cold front to move east becoming
stationary south of 22N to the Windward Passage tonight. The cold
front will continue into the central Atlantic Friday. The next
stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Saturday night followed by strong northerly winds. Winds will
diminish through late Sunday as the front shifts eastward,
eventually reaching from 32N62W to central Cuba by early Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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