[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico gale warning: a strong cold front will move into
the Gulf of Mexico Friday night, shift southeast through Saturday,
and reach from south Florida to the southwest Gulf by early
Sunday. Strong high pressure will build behind the front,
allowing winds to gale force over portions of the west central
and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico, from Tampico to
south of Veracruz starting Saturday through mid Sunday.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the eastern
Atlantic at 07N12W then transitions to the ITCZ at 08N16W. The
ITCZ continues westward to 10N25W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 16W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted from 12N to 15N between 25W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Georgia/Alabama border
this morning, maintaining light anticyclonic flow across much of
the eastern Gulf. Fair skies persist across most of the Gulf,
except for the west central and southwest Gulf where broken to
overcast mid and high level clouds persist due to the presence of
the subtropical jet overhead. Moderate southerly return flow is
ongoing across the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure and
deep low pressure emerging out of the Colorado Rockies into the
central Plains. An associated cold front will move across the
southern Plains through Friday, and enter the northwest Gulf
Friday night. A cool airmass building behind the front will bring strong
northerly winds over much of the Gulf through late Sunday,
reaching gale force over the west central and southwest Gulf.
Winds and seas diminish early next week as the high pressure
shifts eastward through the Carolinas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary reaching from eastern Cuba to north central
Honduras will sag southward through Friday, eventually stalling
completely from northwest Haiti to eastern Honduras. A few showers
and thunderstorms active along the length of this boundary will
persist through the weekend. Farther south, 1008 mb low pressure
remains centered near 13N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection continues to pulse within 180 nm in the
southeast semicircle of the low pressure. Although the overall
pattern is not as organized as it has been, a tropical depression
could form over the next several days as the low pressure
continues to meander over the southwest Caribbean. Farther east, a
weak surface trough continues to move slowly westward from the
eastern Caribbean into the central Caribbean. Looking ahead, a
strong reinforcing front will push into the northwest Caribbean
Sunday, bringing a surge of strong northerly winds across the
northwest Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and along the coasts of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama into Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the
merged frontal boundary as well.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the approaching
cold front is creating a diffluent environment across the
island. Moisture from the system over the southwest Caribbean is
advecting across the island giving parts of Haiti scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The cold front is
expected to stall over northwest Haiti and the Windward Passage
this evening. This will continue to produce showers and possible
thunderstorms across the island through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough reaching from New England to the central Bahamas
is supporting a cold front that extends from a 1004 mb low near
Bermuda to the southern Bahamas near 21N73W, then more or less
stationary into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active within 180 nm east of the front. An upper low is in
the east Atlantic near 28N28W supporting a surface trough that
extends 29N27W to 22N27W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed from 26N to 30N between 22W and 28W. A
large surface ridge dominates the remainder of the east and
central Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure north of area
near 41N36W. The west Atlantic front will move east reaching from
32N62W to 22N66W then stationary to the Windward Passage this
evening. The cold front will continue into the central Atlantic
Friday. The next even stronger cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Saturday night followed by strong
northerly winds. Winds will diminish through late Sunday as the
front shifts eastward, eventually reaching from 32N62W to central
Cuba by early Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CHRISTENSEN
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