[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic to the coast of Sierra Leone near 8N13W where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues into the Atlantic along
7N17W 9N34W 7N52W to south America near 8N59w. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of a line
from 6N22W to 4N31W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 5N-11N between 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains in place across the entire
basin tonight, in the wake of a recent frontal passage that
swept across the region early this week. Mid to high clouds
related to the subtropical jet push into the far southwest Gulf
of Mexico, within 75 nm along the coast from Tampico to
Veracruz. A surface ridge has built south into the Gulf anchored
by a pair of 1017 mb highs; one over Alabama and the second
along the southeast coast of Louisiana near 29N91W. This is
giving the remainder of the Gulf east-southeast return flow and
fair weather tonight. This return flow will persist through
Friday. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
late Friday night and reach south Florida to the southwest Gulf
by Sunday morning. This could produce gale force winds over the
southwest Gulf Saturday into Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba
near 21N77W across the Cayman Islands to 17N84W then along the
coast of Honduras and Guatemala. Scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front west of
83W. Southeast of the front is a persistent surface trough that
extends from Jamaica near 18N78W through a weak 1008 mb low near
13N80W to Panama near 9N81W. clusters of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 225 nm either side of the
surface trough. This activity is being enhanced by an upper
ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean this week. A second
surface trough is moving across the east Caribbean extending
from Saint Croix in the Virgin Islands to off the coast of
Venezuela near 11N66W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 62W-70W including
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The front over
the northwest Caribbean coupled with upper ridge over the
Caribbean is producing a diffluent environment, then adding the
moisture associated with the western surface trough are
generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms north of 17N between 72W-77W including east Cuba
and most of Haiti. The cold front is expected to stall from the
Windward Passage to the Nicaragua/Honduras border Thursday
evening. The low will meander over the southwest Caribbean into
the weekend when a tropical depression could from. The second
surface trough will continue west through the end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the approaching
cold front is creating a diffluent environment across the
island. Moisture from the system over the southwest Caribbean is
advecting across the island giving Haiti scattered to numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms. The cold front is expected
to stall over the Windward Passage Thursday evening. This will
continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across the island
into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough reaching from off New England to the central
Bahamas is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N67W
to a weak 1007 mb low near 28N70W continuing across the Bahamas
to across Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are well ahead of the front within 90 nm of la
line from the Windward Passage near 20N73W along 25N68W to
31N65W. Meanwhile a stronger cold front is expected to move into
the waters off northeast Florida by Sunday. Farther east, a
broad ridge dominates much of the remainder of the east Atlantic
anchored by a 1033 mb high about 350 nm northwest of the Azores.
A trough is noted northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, north of
25N along 27W. This is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 250 nm east of the trough. The west
Atlantic low pressure is expected to move rapidly to the
northeast toward Bermuda through early Thursday. The front will
continue to move eastward, reaching from 32N65W to the Windward
Passage by Thursday afternoon where it will stall.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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