[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST WED NOV 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W where it
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues into the Atlantic
along 08N20W to 10N30W to 08N50W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 3.5N to 8N between 23W
and 30W. Similar convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis
between 40W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains in place across most of the
basin in the wake of a front currently moving across eastern Cuba
and the Caribbean Sea. Abundant cloudiness with patches of mainly
light rain are observed along the coast of Mexico roughly between
Tampico and Veracruz. Light to gentle winds are noted over the
western Gulf under the influence of a 1019 mb high pressure
located near 24N96W. Moderate to fresh northerly flow is noted
over the southeast Gulf however, between the ridge over the
northwest and central Gulf, and developing low pressure E of the
Bahamas. Seas range from 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf, and 3
to 5 ft over much of the southern Gulf. Looking ahead, the high
pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift eastward ahead of a
strong cold front expected to sweep across the basin this weekend.
Moderate to fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the
front tonight through Friday. Gale conditions are possible over
the far southwest Gulf behind the front Saturday and Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along a cold
front reaching from Camaguey, Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The
front will reach from the Windward Passage to the Honduras/
Nicaragua border this evening and stall over Hispaniola to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Thursday, then gradually become
diffuse over the Caribbean waters through the weekend. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are noted behind the front based on buoy
observations. Farther south, a developing area of low pressure
remains in place over the southwest Caribbean, near 13N80W. A
trough is analyzed from the low center northward to near 17N78W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in a broad area from 12N to
16N between 76W and 82W. A surge of moist southwest flow out of
the eastern Pacific has been sustaining this gyre for the past
several days. This system has changed little in organization
since yesterday, and recent satellite data indicate that the
associated winds are light. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for slow development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or over the weekend while the low moves slowly and
erratically. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this broad
low pressure area a high change of tropical cyclone formation
through 5 days. Farther east, a well defined surface trough
continues to move west across the eastern Caribbean. This trough
is forecast to reach the central Caribbean by early Friday, then
stall as it moves toward the southwest Gulf Saturday. Upper
diffluence, associated with an anticyclone located over the
eastern Caribbean near 15N65W, is helping to induce scattered
showers and thunderstorms just E of the Windward Islands. This
convective activity is mainly affecting the area from 10N to 15N
between 55W and 60W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A diffluent pattern aloft between a broad upper trough moving off
Florida into the northern Bahamas, and an upper anticyclone over
the eastern Caribbean Sea is enhancing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across Hispaniola. On Thursday, the combination of a
cold front approaching from the west and a surface trough nearing
Dominican Republic will serve as the focus for additional showers
and a few thunderstorms through the weekend, as the frontal boundary
likely remains nearly stationary over the island. Given persistent
high amounts of deep layer moisture, locally heavy rainfall is
possible from late Thursday through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level trough extending across the Eastern Seaboard
to SE Florida is moving eastward, supporting a cold front that
extends from a 1004 mb low pressure near 27N71W to Camaguey, Cuba.
This low pressure has developed along the frontal boundary just E
of buoy 41047 that shows increasing winds and a pressure value of
1005 mb. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly
flow within about 120 nm W of the front, mainly S of 29N to the
NW bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident ahead
of the front near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The low pressure
is expected to move rapidly to the northeast toward Bermuda
through early Thursday morning. The front will continue to move
eastward, reaching from 31N64W to Hispaniola on Thursday, and from
31N58W to Hispaniola on Friday. The front will extend from 31N55W
to NE Dominican Republic on Saturday, before stalling and
weakening from 31N50W to northeast Dominican Republic by early
Sunday. Meanwhile a stronger cold front is expected to move into
the waters off northeast Florida by early Sunday.

Farther east, a broad ridge dominates much of the remainder of
the east Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high located about 180 nm
northwest of the Azores. A trough is noted west of the Canary
Islands, north of 26N along 25W-26W. This trough is a reflection
of an upper-level low and is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Winds of 20 to 25 kt are also noted in association
with this trough mainly N of 28N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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