[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to the coast where the
ITCZ begins near 8N13W and continues along 8N20W 6N26W 8N40W to
inland over South America near 4N52W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-8N between
10W-17W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N-
12N between 22W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough extends from over New England into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico over the Florida Panhandle then narrows as it
extends west to south Texas supporting a dissipating cold front
that extends into the Gulf near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to the
Texas coast near Corpus Christi. Dry, stable air aloft covers
the north Gulf limiting any shower activity with this front. A
remnant cold front extends through the Straits of Florida near
24N80W across west Cuba near Havana into the northwest
Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are southeast of a line from south Florida 25N81W
to the Yucatan near 22N87W. Scattered showers with possible
isolated thunderstorms are inland and in the Bay of Campeche
south of 21N east of 95W and south of 23N west of 95W. The cold
front in the southeast Gulf will exit the basin overnight
tonight. The dissipating cold front in the northwest Gulf will
transition to a surface trough and dissipate Wednesday. The next
cold front to enter the Gulf later this week will be stronger.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba
near Havana through 21N86W to over the Yucatan peninsula to
18N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are northwest of a line from Cuba near 22N81W to
the Yucatan near 18N88W. An elongated east/west upper ridge
remains anchored near 15N75W and extends into the west Atlantic.
At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 14N74W
through a 1007 mb low near 11N79W then west to over Central
America near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. Clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N
between 73W-83W. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to
enhance the showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system. A surface trough is over the Lesser Antilles extending
from 17N61W to 11N62W with isolated showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms from 11N-16N between 60W-65W. The cold
front will stall from the Windward Passage to Honduras Wednesday
through the end of the week. The east Caribbean surface trough
will continue to track west into the south-central Caribbean
through Thursday morning. The broad area of low pressure will
meander over the southwest Caribbean through the end of the
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are
beginning to dissipate across the island tonight. Afternoon
showers will develop over the island again on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase with the approach of the cold
front to the west on Thursday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a remnant cold front
that extends through 32N70W along 26N76W then across the Bahama
Islands into the Straits of Florida near 24N80W continuing into
the northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the
front and within 90 nm west of the front south of 30N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 24N to over Cuba
between 73W-76W. The deep layered low over the west-central
Atlantic has become elongated northwest/southeast with the upper
low near 32N56W and a weakening surface 1013 mb low centered
near 31N58W. A dissipating cold front enters the central
Atlantic near 32W51W to 24N51W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 23N between 47W-54W. A surface trough
extends from the surface low along 28N55W 24N57W to 21N58W. An
upper low over the east Atlantic centered near 28N24W is
supporting a surface trough that extends from 30N23W to 25N23W
and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from 26N-30N between 20W-28W. A broad surface ridge covers the
remainder of the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about
200 nm north of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will
move slowly southeast reaching from 32N67W to the Turks and
Caicos becoming stationary into the Caribbean Thursday morning.
The north portion of the front will continue into the
central Atlantic Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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