[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N13W where the ITCZ axis begins and continues
along 7N20W to 9N34W to 7N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 7N-9N between 13W-16W, and within 120 nm S of
the ITCZ axis between 18W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-11N between 17W-23W, and from 10N-11N between 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula. The front is generating numerous patches of rain with
embedded showers across the Straits of Florida, the Florida Keys
and SE Florida. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted per
scatterometer data in the wake of the front, with the exception of
moderate to fresh winds over the Bay of Campeche, where abundant
cloudiness with patches of light rain is observed. The front will
move SE exiting the Gulf tonight. A new cold front has entered the
NW Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the new front stretches from SW Louisiana to
near Corpus Christi Texas. This front is forecast to stall across
the north waters tonight and dissipate on Wednesday. Then, high
pressure behind the front, with center over the SE CONUS will
dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the week. A third cold
front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday night
followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds and building
seas. In the upper-levels, a long-wave trough extends across the
eastern United States and over the northern Gulf from the Florida
Panhandle to near Brownsville Texas supporting the aforementioned
cold front. Strong SW flow S of the trough axis dominates the
remainder of the Gulf and the State of Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area cloudiness and thunderstorms is associated with a
broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. At 1800 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed on the
surface map near 12N78W. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development of this disturbance during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
late this week or over the weekend while the low drifts generally
northward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this low
pressure a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 5
days. Computer model suggests increasing winds in the lee of Cuba
on Thursday, then between Cuba and the Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida on Friday. This will be associated with a tight pressure
gradient between the high pressure over the SE United States and
the developing tropical low across the SW Caribbean. A cold front
is over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. This front is
forecast to reach from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by early Wednesday afternoon, and from the Windward Passage to the
Gulf of Honduras by Wednesday night where it is forecast to stall.
Expect some shower activity with the frontal passage. A trough is
over the Windward Islands producing some shower activity. Moisture
associated with this trough will spread across the eastern Caribbean
tonight and Wednesday. Aloft, upper diffluence, associated with an
anticyclone centered near 16N74W, is helping to induce convection
near the broad area of low pressure located in the SW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Available moisture will combine with the local effects to generate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N72W and continues
SW across the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. A 180 nm wide
band of cloudiness with embedded showers is associated with this
front. It is forecast to move slowly SE reaching from 31N69W to
the NW Bahamas and west-central Cuba by early Wednesday morning,
and from 31N68W to the Windward Passage by Wednesday night. The
northern portion of the front will continue to move SE while the
southern portion will stall near the Windward Passage on Thursday.
An occluded low pressure is near 31N55W with a cold front entering
the forecast region near 31N50w to 25N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the front, particularly N of 26N E of
front to about 46W. A ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high located N
of the Azores, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
area. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted N of 27N and around
the southern periphery of the ridge. Aloft, a ridge extends from
the Caribbean Sea across the west Atlantic west of 60W. An upper-level
low is spinning near 28N23W generating scattered showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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