[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa not reaching the Atlantic
waters. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 07N26W then resumes near
05N28W to 03N34W to 06N41W. A surface trough was analyzed in the
break of the ITCZ extending from 13N31W to 08N28W. Isolated
showers are observed within 100 nm of the axis between 32W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered over northeast Georgia near 34N83W. To the southwest,
a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 24N97W to
21N94W. A convergent easterly wind on the east side of the trough
axis along with diffluence aloft are generating scattered showers
north of 23N between 92W-96W. An area of scattered moderate
convection prevails across the far west Caribbean and reaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Channel south of 23N between 85W-90W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across the
basin. These winds will continue through the next couple of days with
slightly higher winds, fresh to occasional strong, across the SE
Gulf waters and Florida Straits.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moisture associated with an upper-level ridge along with a
surface trough analyzed near the Central America coast from
the Yucatan Channel to northern Honduras is providing focus for
scattered moderate convection south of 21N west of 81W. To the
south, the Monsoon Trough extends along 11N between 73W-84W with
isolated showers along the trough. A diffluent flow aloft coupled
with a 1006 mb surface low near 19N67W and a surface trough
extending from 16N70W to the low are supporting scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 15N and east of 71W.
This activity is affecting eastern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Lesser Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
across the basin south of 18N while moderate to fresh northerly
winds prevail north of 18N. Expect during he next 24-48 hours
for the surface low northwest of Puerto Rico to move south
enhancing convection. The upper-level support will shift southeast
generating convection across the Lesser Antilles.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough axis extends northwest of the island
supporting a 1006 mb surface low centered near 19N67W. these
features are supporting scattered moderate convection across the
eastern portion of the island. An overall drying trend is
expected as the upper-level trough shifts southeastward during
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low noted on Water Vapor imagery over the
western Atlantic with trough axis extending along 32N62W to
25N64W to 20N73W. The troughing supports a weakening and slowly
dissipating cold front analyzed from 33N60W to 30N73W. Isolated
showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the front. To the
east, a broad 1011 mb low is centered near 30N50W and extends a
trough from the low to 23N57W to a 1006 mb low centered N of the
Mona Passage near 19N67W. These features are supported by a
diffluent flow aloft generating scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms south of 26N between 49W-66W. To the east, shortwave
trough is supporting scattered showers from 23N-31N between 34W-
42W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered NW of the
Azores near 41N36W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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