[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
08N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N27W to 06N44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
the 03N-13N between 13W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this
afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery
E of 88W and and relatively moist and marginally unstable air
within S-SW flow aloft W of 88W. Beneath the southerly flow...a
surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf waters from
19N94W to 24N97W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of
the trough axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating
widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 21N-27N between
92W-97W. Farther east...a localized area of low-level speed
convergence is generating a few isolated showers and tstms from
23N-25N between 84W-87W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered across North Carolina. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are
expected to continue through Thursday with slightly higher
winds...fresh to occasional strong...across the SE Gulf waters and
Florida Straits. By Thursday...the ridging to the N shifts
eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is
forecast to impact the northern waters Friday and Friday night
with strong NE winds expected in wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean
basin this afternoon between an upper level ridge axis extending
from over the Yucatan peninsula SE to over northern
Colombia...and an upper level trough digging southward with axis
currently extending N of Hispaniola near 22N70W to over eastern
Cuba near 21N78W. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft
filtering in over Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters...however
moisture associated with the upper level ridging along with a
surface trough analyzed along the Central America coast from
northern Honduras to western Panama...is providing focus for
scattered showers and tstms S of 20N W of 83W...and S of 13N W of
74W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable
upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the digging
upper level trough...it supports a 1007 mb surface low centered N
of the Mona Passage near 19N67W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring mainly within the eastern periphery of the low across
the NE Caribbean N of 15N E of 67W into the central tropical Atlc
waters. Elsewhere N of 14N E of 75W isolated showers and possible
tstms are occurring as the upper level troughing and mid-level
energy continues to promote favorable lifting dynamics to support
this convection. Lastly...with the troughing and broad area of
lower pressure influencing the basin...trades continues to be
disrupted with overall light to gentle variable winds. One
exception is that fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds are
expected across the far NW Caribbean...lee of Cuba...Windward
Passage...and lee of SE Hispaniola are expected to persist through
early Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level trough axis extends N-NW of the island from 22N70W
to 21N78W. The upper level troughing supports a 1007 mb low
centered near 19N67W however much of the stronger convection isnoted east of Hispaniola. However...lingering isolated showers
remain W and SW of the low N of 15N between 67W-75W...including
interior portions and the adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. An
overall drying trend is expected as the upper level trough shifts
southeastward during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low noted on water vapor imagery over the
western North Atlc with trough axis extending along 32N60W to
25N65W to 21N75W. The troughing supports a weakening and slowly
dissipating cold front analyzed from 32N64W W-SW to 30N70W to
30N76W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of
the front. To the E-SE...a pre-frontal surface trough extends from
32N58W to 27N65W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within
90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of
the SW North Atlc remains on the southern periphery of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered across North Carolina
near 36N78W with moderate to fresh N-NE winds that are expected
to persist through Thursday. The troughing aloft also supports a
frontal trough extending from a broad 1011 mb low centered near
29N50W SW along 24N55W to 21N60W into a 1007 mb low centered N of
the Mona Passage near 19N67W. Most active convection with this
surface trough is occurring east of the boundary...with scattered
showers and tstms noted across two areas. One area is from 22N-34N
between 34W-48W in association with the 1011 mb low and the other
area is from 15N-23N between 46W-67W in association with the 1007
mb low. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered
NW of the Azores near 41N34W. The ridge axis extends SE to 30N27W
then S to 17N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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