[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27N70W and is currently
interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting
scattered moderate convection across the west Atlantic from 19N-
31N between 65W-76W. A surface trough extends from 32N63w, to
the low, to 30N72W. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to
form on Friday or Saturday while the system moves west-
northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United
States coast. There is a high chance for this system to develop
into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more
information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving slowly w across western Africa, with
axis extending from 14N13W to 06N14W. The wave is in the
vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection prevails in the
wave's environment mainly between 10W-14W.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 09N44W to 01N46W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a low amplitude
700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of an area of deep
moisture. The convection in the vicinity of the wave is likely
associated with the proximity of the ITCZ.

A new low-amplitude tropical wave has been introduced to this
map. The wave's axis is located southeast of the Windward
Islands extending from 13N56W to a 1011 mb low near 09N57W to
08N57W. These features are embedded in an area of deep moisture
as noted in 700 mb TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 08N-11N between 54W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting
at around 10N15W to 04N23W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W and
continues to 08N43W. An area of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms prevails north of the ITCZ between 27W-49W.
Isolated convection is along the Monsoon Trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends across the basin from the west
Atlantic high pressure centered west of Bermuda and a 1021 mb
high centered over the northeast Gulf near 29N84W. Scatterometer
data depicts a fresh to strong southeasterly flow across the
western half of the basin while a gentle to moderate easterly
flow prevails across the eastern Gulf waters. An area of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevails along
the central portion of the CONUS reaching the north-central Gulf
waters, mainly north of 28N between 91W-95W. Over the next 24
hours, a similar weather pattern will prevail across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough prevails across the western portion of the
basin inducing scattered moderate convection mainly north of 15N
and west of 70W affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica, and
Hispaniola. A stationary 1010 mb surface low is centered near
10N81W related to the EPAC Monsoon Trough with scattered
moderate convection prevailing south of 10N and west of 75W. A
surface trough extends across the Virgin Islands area from
21N63W to 15N65W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the majority of the basin except between 70W-80W
where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Within the next 24 hours,
a low-amplitude tropical wave will enter the basin with
convection.

HISPANIOLA...

A broad upper-level trough over the western Atlantic and west
Caribbean supports patches of showers and thunderstorms across
the island. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough covers the west Atlantic supporting
scattered convection across the area west of 65W. An elongated
area of low pressure is centered near 27N70W and has a high
chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. For more
information, please refer to the Special Features section above.
To the east, a surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N49W. A pair of surface
troughs are over the central Atlantic, one extending from 29N51W
to 26N53W, and the other from 29N42W to 29N37W. Two tropical
waves extends across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the
Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect during the next
24 hours for the low in the west Atlantic to move northwest
with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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