[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Weak 1014 mb low pressure has developed near 27N69W and is
currently interacting with a broad upper level trough. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ne quadrant of the
low. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of
a surface trough that extends from 31N68W through the low
center, to 21N72W. There is a medium chance for this system to
develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more
information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 13N12W to 06N13W, moving
west at around 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in the
vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm of
the wave axis.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
11N42W to 02N42W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is embedded within a weak low amplitude 700 mb
trough and is along the leading edge of a low amplitude area of
deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is
likely associated with the ITCZ and not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave extends from the southeast Caribbean near 12N65W
to inland over South America, moving west around 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a low
amplitude 700 mb trough. Convection associated with this wave is
well inland over South America.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the east
tropical Atlc near 12N16W along 08N18W to 04N23W, where the ITCZ
begins and continues along 04N30W to just east of the tropical
wave near 5N41W. A 1013 mb low is centered near 10N56W with a
surface trough extending from 13N55W through the low center to
near 07N56W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of
the monsoon trough between 18W and 23W. Clusters of moderate
convection are within 150 nm of a line from 10N59W to 09N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from Atlc high pressure west of
Bermuda to north Florida to the western Gulf coast near
Brownsville, TX. This ridging supports moderate east to
southeast winds over the majority of the central and eastern
Gulf. Winds increase to fresh southeasterly near the western
Gulf coast. Jet stream energy rounding an upper trough inland
over the Rockies supports clusters of storms inland over the
western Gulf and scattered showers over the Gulf waters within
90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, a dissipating diurnal surface
trough is over the southwest Gulf from 23N93W to 18N94W. Over
the next 24 hours thunderstorms will continue over Texas
with some possibly reaching the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the southeast Caribbean. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for more details. A surface trough,
formerly energy that broke off the tropical wave to the south,
extends from the Atlc near 21N62W to 15N63W. No deep convection
is noted with this trough. A 1010 mb low is over the southwest
Caribbean near 10N79W with the eastern extension of the east
Pacific monsoon trough extending from Costa Rica, through the
low center, to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Isolated
thunderstorms are south of 12N over the southwest Caribbean. A
broad upper trough over the western Atlc and northwest Caribbean
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
18N between 66W and 84W. Mainly moderate easterly trade winds
cover the Caribbean today, except locally fresh trades south of
16N between 67W and 78W. Little change is forecast over the next
24 hours. A trough of low pressure southwest of the Windward
Islands will bring showers and thunderstorms to those islands by
Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

A broad upper trough over the western Atlc and northwest
Caribbean supports patches of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the island today. Expect little change over the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024
mb high near 33N74W and extending a ridge axis across north
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N68W
through a 1014 mb low near 27N69W to 21N72W. Please refer to the
Special Features section above for more details regarding this
low and convection associated with this entire system. Farther
east, a surface trough extends from 21N62W to the Virgin Islands
and south over the northeastern Caribbean. No deep convection is
noted with this trough. Another surface trough extends from
31N40W to 30N33W. No deep convection is associated with this
trough. However, scatterometer data shows fresh winds within 90
nm of the trough axis, shifting abruptly from southwest on the
southern side of the trough to northeast on the northern side of
the trough. A tropical wave, weak surface low, and associated
surface trough are over the tropical Atlc. Please refer to the
tropical waves section and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for
further details on these features.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ASL
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